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Poland GDP Q2 2021

Poland: Economy records best result in nearly two decades in Q2

According to a preliminary reading, GDP increased 10.9% year-on-year in the second quarter, contrasting the 0.9% contraction seen in the first quarter and logging the best result since at least 2003. Meanwhile, on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth accelerated to 1.9% in Q2 from 1.3% in the previous quarter.

While a detailed breakdown of the result is yet to be released, available data points to improving household spending in the quarter amid a tightening labor market. Retail sales surged in Q2, while consumer sentiment turned optimistic on average throughout the period. Moreover, business confidence improved in the quarter, which likely supported investment activity. On the external front, growth in goods exports rocketed compared to Q1 amid firmer foreign demand dynamics.

More detailed data will be released on 31 August.

Commenting on the outlook for the economy, Rafal Benecki, chief Poland economist at ING, reflected:

“Continued disruptions in supply chains and the rising prevalence of the Delta variant may somewhat dampen the pace of the Q3 2021 rebound, but we remain optimistic. For the whole of 2021, we estimate that real GDP growth in Poland may reach as much as 5.5% year-on-year.”

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