Peru: Economic activity loses momentum in March
Latest reading: Economic activity rose 3.2% on a year-on-year basis in March, following a 3.7% increase in the prior month, beating market expectations.
Relative to the prior month’s data, readings in March softened for commerce (+4.1% in annual terms vs +6.1% in February), agriculture (-0.5% vs +1.1% in February) and mining and hydrocarbons (-4.6% vs -1.1% in February). In contrast, readings improved for construction (+15.6% vs +8.7% in February) and manufacturing (+3.6% vs +2.9% in February).
A major gas pipeline rupture hit energy generation and some service activities, albeit by less than was anticipated by analysts.
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity declined 0.1% in March, following a flat reading in the prior month.
Panelist insight: Looking at the broader outlook, BBVA analysts noted:
“Looking ahead […] there are important factors that continue to generate uncertainty and influence the performance of the Peruvian economy. One of these is the election result, in which two options with very different visions are competing, and therefore, with very different economic implications […]. Added to this is the impact of the unresolved conflict in the Middle East and the anomalies in the weather, which, for example, have led to bans on anchovy fishing.”