New Zealand Business Confidence July 2019

New Zealand

New Zealand: Business confidence moves further into pessimistic territory in July

July 31, 2019

The ANZ bank business outlook indicator fell by 6.2 points in July, with a net 44.3% of firms reporting that they expect general business conditions to deteriorate this year. The headline reading therefore moved further below the net-0% threshold that separates pessimism from optimism among businesses. July’s result reflected falling profit expectations, growing concerns over tighter credit conditions, and falling employment intentions.

Meanwhile, firms’ positive outlook regarding their own activity—a metric which has a stronger correlation to GDP growth—declined to a net 5.0% in July, after reporting a net 8.0% in June. Notably, the activity outlook for the construction and retail sectors deteriorated notably from the previous month, while the outlook for the manufacturing, agriculture and services sector improved.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect fixed investment to grow 2.5% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.

Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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New Zealand Business Confidence Chart

New Zealand Business Confidence July 2019

Note: Percentage of respondents expecting improvement in general business conditions minus percentage expecting deterioration. An index number above 0 indicates that optimists outnumber pessimists. The survey is not conducted in January.
Source: ANZ Bank Business Outlook.

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