Netherlands: Q2 GDP growth revised up slightly in second estimate
September 21, 2018
A second GDP estimate for the second quarter of this year, released on 21 September, showed that the economy expanded 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. The result, which was chiefly thanks to upward revisions to private consumption and fixed investment growth, was slightly above the preliminary estimate of 0.7%. Year-on-year growth in the second quarter was also revised upwards from 2.9% to 3.1%.
Although private consumption growth was revised upward from a flat reading to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the figure was still markedly down from the 1.4% expansion in the first quarter. Fixed investment growth also received an upward revision from 0.7% to 1.1%; (Q1: +2.6% quarter-on-quarter). On the other hand, growth in government consumption was revised downward from 0.2% to 0.1% (Q1: +0.4% qoq).
On the external front, export growth was revised up to 1.3% from the preliminary estimate of 0.9% (Q1: -0.5% qoq) with both goods and services exports rebounding markedly from contractions in the previous quarter. Simultaneously, imports expanded 0.3% in Q2, after the preliminary estimate of a 0.1% contraction (Q1: +0.4% qoq).
Looking ahead, the Dutch economy is likely to continue growing at a robust pace in the second half of this year and next year, driven by solid domestic demand. However, the contribution of net exports is expected to moderate on higher oil prices and slower world trade. Moreover, Brexit-related uncertainty and a possible escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU remain significant downside risks.
Author: Jan Lammersen, Economist