Netherlands GDP Q2 2018


Netherlands: Q2 GDP growth revised up slightly in second estimate

September 21, 2018

A second GDP estimate for the second quarter of this year, released on 21 September, showed that the economy expanded 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. The result, which was chiefly thanks to upward revisions to private consumption and fixed investment growth, was slightly above the preliminary estimate of 0.7%. Year-on-year growth in the second quarter was also revised upwards from 2.9% to 3.1%.

Although private consumption growth was revised upward from a flat reading to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, the figure was still markedly down from the 1.4% expansion in the first quarter. Fixed investment growth also received an upward revision from 0.7% to 1.1%; (Q1: +2.6% quarter-on-quarter). On the other hand, growth in government consumption was revised downward from 0.2% to 0.1% (Q1: +0.4% qoq).

On the external front, export growth was revised up to 1.3% from the preliminary estimate of 0.9% (Q1: -0.5% qoq) with both goods and services exports rebounding markedly from contractions in the previous quarter. Simultaneously, imports expanded 0.3% in Q2, after the preliminary estimate of a 0.1% contraction (Q1: +0.4% qoq).

Looking ahead, the Dutch economy is likely to continue growing at a robust pace in the second half of this year and next year, driven by solid domestic demand. However, the contribution of net exports is expected to moderate on higher oil prices and slower world trade. Moreover, Brexit-related uncertainty and a possible escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and the EU remain significant downside risks.

The government expects the economy to grow 2.8% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists are slightly less optimistic and see GDP growing 2.7% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2019, the panel expects the economy to expand 2.1%, which is also unchanged from last month.

Author:, Economist

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Netherlands GDP Chart

Netherlands GDP Q2  2018 1

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Statistics Netherlands (CBS) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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