Mexico: Inflation moderates in September
October 9, 2013
Consumer prices rose 0.38% in September over the previous month, which came above the 0.28% increase observed in August. The reading undershot market expectations of a 0.44% increase. According to the statistical institute, the monthly increase reflected higher prices for agricultural products, particularly for fresh food. Prices have yet to reflect the impact of the massive hurricanes that hit the country in mid-September.
Annual headline inflation inched down from 3.5% in August to 3.4% in September; the fourth consecutive decline and the lowest rate in eight months. Meanwhile, annual core inflation inched up from 2.4% in August to 2.5% in September.
The Central Bank expects inflation to end this year at around 3.5%. In 2014, the Bank expects inflation to moderate to levels close to its long-term inflation target of 3.0%. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end the year at 3.6%, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For next year, the panel sees year-end inflation at 3.7%, which is unchanged from last month's Consensus.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist