Malaysia Economic Forecast

Malaysia Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

GDP growth accelerated in Q1 amid a broad-based improvement. Turning to this quarter, the government’s Endemic Phase strategy to live alongside the virus should be buttressing overall activity. In April, the unemployment rate reached its lowest level since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, which should have supported private spending. Similarly, the manufacturing PMI averaged higher in April–May compared to the previous quarter. On the external front, the country is expected to benefit from currently-elevated prices for its main exports: palm oil, rubber and natural gas. Meanwhile, on 1 June, Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob announced a ban on chicken exports in an effort to control rising price pressures. Although the ban has since eased to a selection of chicken products, the ongoing restrictions are likely to impact trade.

Malaysia Economic Growth

The economy is set grow at a swifter pace this year, buttressed by a less strict pandemic management strategy and recovering activity in the tourism sector. In addition, higher commodity prices should sustain exports. That said, a tighter monetary policy could weigh on growth, while uncertainty ahead of September’s general elections clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists predict the economy growing 6.2% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees the economy expanding 4.8%.

Malaysia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.231.632.032.432.8
GDP per capita (USD)9,7249,5789,95211,07211,091
GDP (USD bn)303303319359364
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.14.45.84.84.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.05.96.98.07.6
Investment (annual variation in %)3.62.66.11.4-2.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.54.14.43.12.3
Unemployment Rate3.13.53.33.33.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-3.1-2.9-3.7-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.651.950.151.252.5
Money (annual variation in %)3.33.25.18.93.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.71.73.50.21.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.12.13.81.00.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-7.5-1.16.7-1.1-1.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.003.003.253.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.3-6.40.211.8-9.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.294.494.054.134.09
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.914.144.304.044.14
Current Account (% of GDP)3.02.42.82.23.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)9.17.28.98.012.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)23.221.223.030.733.2
Exports (USD billion)199190218249238
Imports (USD billion)176168195218205
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.9-4.914.814.3-4.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.7-4.415.612.0-5.9
International Reserves (USD)95.394.5102101104
External Debt (% of GDP)64.367.368.662.363.5

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Malaysia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.320.15 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate4.090.0 %Jan 01

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