Malaysia Economic Forecast

Malaysia Economic Outlook

January 25, 2022

Available data suggests that economic conditions improved in Q4 2021, largely due to easing Covid-19 curbs. Industrial production rebounded on average in October–November, while merchandise exports grew at a quicker rate owing to strong foreign demand for electronics. These factors, coupled with a robust improvement in operating conditions in the manufacturing sector in Q4, suggest a pickup in private sector activity. Similarly, a lower unemployment rate in October–November bodes well for household spending, although elevated inflation in the quarter will have capped growth. On a less positive note, destructive floods at the end of 2021 and in early 2022 will weigh on current quarter activity. However, the government presented a flood relief package of about USD 335 million on 29 December 2021, which should somewhat alleviate the natural disasters’ economic impact.

Malaysia Economic Growth

In 2022, economic growth is set to accelerate compared to last year, largely because of the fading impact of pandemic-induced disruptions to domestic activity, amid a markedly higher vaccination rate. Moreover, recovering activity among key trading partners will sustain exports. That said, Covid-19 flare-ups and the prospect of general elections in 2022 cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists predict the economy growing 5.8% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees the economy expanding 5.1%.

Malaysia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)31.231.632.032.432.8
GDP per capita (USD)9,7249,5789,95211,07211,091
GDP (USD bn)303303319359364
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.14.45.84.84.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.05.96.98.07.6
Investment (annual variation in %)3.62.66.11.4-2.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.54.14.43.12.3
Unemployment Rate3.13.53.33.33.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-3.1-2.9-3.7-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)53.651.950.151.252.5
Money (annual variation in %)3.33.25.18.93.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.71.73.50.21.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.12.13.81.00.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-7.5-1.16.7-1.1-1.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.253.003.003.253.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-1.3-6.40.211.8-9.9
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.294.494.054.134.09
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)3.914.144.304.044.14
Current Account (% of GDP)3.02.42.82.23.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)9.17.28.98.012.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)23.221.223.030.733.2
Exports (USD billion)199190218249238
Imports (USD billion)176168195218205
Exports (annual variation in %)-14.9-4.914.814.3-4.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.7-4.415.612.0-5.9
International Reserves (USD)95.394.5102101104
External Debt (% of GDP)64.367.368.662.363.5

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Malaysia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.320.15 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate4.090.0 %Jan 01

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