The Atyrau bridge in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan GDP Q3 2021

Kazakhstan: GDP growth accelerates in January–September amid favorable base effect

According to a preliminary reading, GDP expanded 3.5% year-on-year in the January–September period, accelerating from the 2.4% expansion recorded in H1. The reading was flattered by a more favorable base effect.

Looking at the details of the release, the services sector—accounting for over half of nominal GDP—led the uptick, growing 2.9% in the first nine months of the year (H1: +1.9% yoy), amid solid trade and a rebounding transportation sector. Moreover, the industrial sector grew 2.6%, up from H1’s 1.3% expansion, mainly due to a softer fall in mining and quarrying output but also aided by stronger manufacturing and electricity output. Meanwhile, growth in the construction sector remained solid, albeit slowing to 9.7% (H1: +11.9%).

After growing at a sound pace in the first nine months of the year, the services sector should benefit from improved conditions in the fourth quarter, as Covid-19 restrictions were eased in the country’s two largest cities in late October. However, the short-term economic indicator pointed to a slowdown in October, as growth in both the transportation and warehousing, and construction subsectors moderated from January–September’s reading.

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