Kazakhstan: Economy contracts at steeper pace in January–September
November 16, 2020
A preliminary estimate released on 16 November revealed the economy was down 2.8% in January–September in annual terms. The print came below H1’s 1.8% fall, with activity likely depressed by the imposition of a second lockdown in July–August.
Available data shows the services sector remained sluggish in January–September, dropping 6.1% (H1: -5.4%). Moreover, industrial output lost steam, growing by a mere 0.2%, well below the 3.2% expansion logged in H1. Additionally, despite remaining relatively strong, the construction sector lost momentum, expanding by 10.5% (H1: +11.2%). Contrastingly, the agricultural sector picked up, expanding 5.0% (H1: +2.2%). Nevertheless, this had a very limited impact on the overall reading on account of the agricultural sector’s comparatively small weight.
Looking at Q4, the economy should gain some ground on eased restrictions, but will still contract sharply over 2020 as a whole. Economic output should rebound in 2021 as external demand returns and oil prices recover somewhat.