Japan Industry July 2019

Japan

Japan: Industrial production rebounds in July

August 30, 2019

Industrial production rose 1.3% on a month-on-month and seasonally-adjusted basis in July, contrasting June’s 3.3% decrease (previously reported: -3.6% month-on-month). The print overshot the 0.3% increase that market analysts had expected by a wide margin.

The categories that drove the month-on-month rise were motor vehicles, chemicals (excluding inorganic, organic chemicals, and medicine) and pulp, paper and paper products, in descending order. Higher output for these categories was partially offset by decreases in production of inorganic and organic chemicals, and petroleum and coal products as well as electrical machinery, and Information and communication electronics equipment

On an annual basis, industrial output rose 0.7% in July, contrasting June’s 3.8% decline. The annual average variation in industrial production fell from minus 0.6% in June to minus 0.8% in July, the lowest reding in nearly three years.

The Survey of Production Forecast showed that manufacturers are more pessimistic. They now expect industrial output to have recorded a 1.3% monthly increase in August, up from the 0.6% increase forecast in the previous month’s survey. Manufacturers, however, expect a 1.6% decrease in September.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production rising 0.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points over the previous month’s projection. For 2020 the panel expects industrial production to expand 0.8%.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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Japan Industry July 2019

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and year-on-year growth rate in %.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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