Italy Industry April 2021

Italy

Italy: Industrial output rises at fastest clip in eight months in April

June 10, 2021

Industrial output expanded 1.8% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in April (March: +0.3% mom), marking the best result since August 2020. The pick up was partly due to faster manufacturing production growth. In contrast, mining and quarrying output fell markedly.

On an annual basis, industrial output increased 79.5% in April, notably above March’s 38.4% expansion and marking the best result on record. That said, the print was flattered by a favorable base effect. Accordingly, the trend improved, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at plus 5.0%, contrasting March's minus 5.3% reading.

Commenting on the outlook for industrial production and the overall economy, Paolo Pizzoli, senior Italy and Greece economist at ING, reflected:

“After today’s release, industry looks set to confirm a strong GDP growth driver for 2Q21, hopefully in conjunction with services, which will be benefiting from the ongoing accelerated re-openings made possible by a successful vaccination campaign. We have recently upgraded our forecasts for average 2021 Italian GDP growth to 4.3%, but after today's release, we anticipate a stronger than expected acceleration over 2Q21, which adds clear upwards risks.“

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project industrial production to expand 9.7% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, the panel see industrial production growth at 3.9%.


Author:, Economist

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Italy Industry April 2021 0

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual growth rate in %.
Source: National Statistical Institute (Istat) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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