India Inflation June 2022

India

India: Inflation remains stable in June

July 12, 2022

Consumer prices rose 0.52% over the previous month in June, below May's 0.94% rise. June's result marked the weakest reading since February. The moderation was largely driven by a more moderate increase in prices for food and beverages. In addition, price pressures for fuel and light softened.

Inflation held steady at May's 7.0% in June. June's result marked the weakest inflation rate since March. Annual average inflation remained at May's 5.9% in June.

Analysts at Nomura said:

“Overall, in light of lower commodity prices and our house view of a recession across a number of advanced economies, we have lowered our inflation forecasts. We now expect inflation to average 6.9% y-o-y in 2022 (7.3% earlier) and 5.9% in 2023 (6.1% earlier). The near-term trajectory is likely to remain sensitive to the seasonal behavior of vegetable prices. In our baseline, we expect inflation to average 7.3% y-o-y in Q3 2022, close to the RBI’s estimates, but expect a much slower fall to 6.8% in Q4 (RBI: 6.2%) and to 6.6% in Q1 2023 (RBI: 5.8%). For FY23, we expect CPI inflation of 7.0% (RBI: 6.7%).”

Our panel projects inflation to average 6.5% in FY 2022, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.9% in FY 2023.


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