India Economic Outlook
June 21, 2022The economy recovered above its pre-pandemic level in FY 2021, which ended in March this year. Turning to the first quarter of FY 2022, GDP growth is likely to speed up considerably. Growth in the industrial sector accelerated in April, suggesting it weathered the disruption to power supply caused by record-breaking temperatures well. Moreover, looser Covid-19 restrictions are boosting domestic demand, helping to push the services PMI to an over 11-year high in May. Demand will also be supported by new measures to combat rising inflation, including cuts to fuel duty, a doubling of the fertilizer subsidy, an export ban on wheat and cuts to import tariffs for some raw materials. That said, inflation remained at a near-decade high in May, which together with higher interest rates will be capping momentum.
India Economic GrowthGrowth this year is set to slow, but it will still be higher than it was before the pandemic. Consumption will be boosted by the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions, while increased government spending will add impetus. That said, rising commodity prices pose a downside risk. The Consensus projects GDP to expand 7.4% in FY 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast, and 6.3% in FY 2023.
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|Bond Yield||6.50||-0.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||71.23||-0.09 %||Jan 01|
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India Economic News
January 16, 2023
Merchandise exports plummeted 12.2% year-on-year in December, contrasting November’s 0.6% increase.
January 12, 2023
Industrial output rose 7.1% in year-on-year terms in November, which contrasted October's 4.2% decrease.
January 12, 2023
Inflation came in at 5.7% in December, down from November’s 5.9%.
January 4, 2023
The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 59.4 in December, up from November's 56.7.
December 12, 2022
Inflation fell to 5.9% in November, significantly undershooting market expectations (October: 6.8%).