India Economic Outlook
May 26, 2020
The economy is likely contracting sharply in Q1 FY 2020, which runs from April to June. The government announced on 18 May that it was extending the national lockdown—which has been in place since 25 March to curb the spread of coronavirus—for a fourth time up until 31 May, although states have been given more control over re-opening their respective economies. Economic data paints a grim picture: The private-sector PMI slumped in April to the lowest reading since current records began in December 2005, while industrial production plunged year-on-year in March at the fastest pace since at least April 2006. Exacerbating matters, Cyclone Amphan caused severe damage to life and infrastructure in the north east in late May. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced on 12 May that total fiscal and monetary policy stimulus now amounts to 10% of GDP.India Economic Growth
The economy will suffer in FY 2020 due to containment measures and weaker external demand. A major downside risk is a significant prolongation of the national lockdown. More positively, fiscal stimulus should support activity, as should looser monetary policy, although the fiscal deficit will spike in tandem. Our panelists project GDP to fall 0.2% in FY 2020, which is down 1.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and increase 7.2% in FY 2021.India Economy Data
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India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.50 | -0.04 % | Jan 01 |
| Exchange Rate | 71.23 | -0.09 % | Jan 01 |
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India Economic News
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India: Private sector PMI continues gradual recovery in June
July 3, 2020
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit climbed to 37.8 in June from 14.8 in May.
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India: Trade continues to suffer badly in May
June 15, 2020
Merchandise exports fell 36.5% in year-on-year terms in May, after falling an historic 60.3% in April (the sharpest fall since at least the early 1990s), amounting to USD 19.1 billion.
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India: Price pressures ease in May
June 15, 2020
The National Statistical Office of India released only partial consumer price index (CPI) data for May, as it did previously for April, because of logistical issues related to the coronavirus pandemic.
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India: Industrial activity contracts at sharpest pace on record in April
June 12, 2020
Industrial output fell 55.5% in year-on-year terms in April, which was a larger contraction than March's 18.3% decrease.
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India: Composite PMI creeps up in May but remains downtrodden
June 3, 2020
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit inched up to 14.8 in May from 7.2 in April; the reading in April thus continues to mark the lowest point since current records began in December 2005.
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