India Economic Forecast

India Economic Outlook

April 16, 2019

The economy appeared to grow at a steady, albeit slightly slower, pace in January–March, with survey data for the private-sector pointing to strong growth throughout the period. This comes after economic growth slowed in October–December. In recent days, the main political parties released their general election manifestos. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) announced it would continue investing heavily in infrastructure and supporting farmers. Aside from putting more emphasis on social welfare spending than on infrastructure expenditure, the economic policy of the opposition Indian National Congress does not drastically differ from the BJP. Meanwhile, the World Bank warned on 4 April that public finances could become more fragile because revenue from the goods and services tax has been below expectations and political parties are making large spending promises.

India Economic Growth

Economic momentum is expected to remain steady this fiscal year, which started in April. Robust government spending should support growth, as should looser monetary policy and greater political certainty following the elections. However, weak public finances and global trade protectionism both weigh on prospects. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 7.2% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 7.3% in FY 2020.

India Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1,2501,2661,2831,3001,317
GDP per capita (USD)1,4881,6141,6321,7501,979
GDP (USD bn)1,8592,0442,0942,2752,607
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.47.48.27.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.36.47.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.62.65.210.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.34.13.44.54.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.567.869.668.970.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.310.711.56.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.25.34.83.94.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.06.04.94.53.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.21.3-3.61.82.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.007.506.756.256.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)18.924.9-9.416.911.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)60.0262.2966.2564.8665.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)60.4261.1465.4267.0464.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.4-1.1-0.7-1.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-32.8-27.6-22.1-15.2-48.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-136.6-137.5-117.2-109.0-157.0
Exports (USD billion)314311262275303
Imports (USD billion)451448379384460
Exports (annual variation in %)4.6-1.2-15.65.110.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.0-0.6-15.41.319.7
International Reserves (USD)304341356373421
External Debt (% of GDP)24.023.223.220.7-  

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India Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.47-0.04 %Apr 22
Exchange Rate69.70-0.09 %Apr 22
Stock Market38,645-0.08 %Apr 22

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