India Economic Outlook
May 22, 2018
The economic recovery that took hold in Q3 of FY 2017, the last quarter for which GDP data is available, appears to have continued through early FY 2018, which began in April. Business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors increased in April compared to the previous month, after also registering gains in Q4 of FY 2017. Stronger demand led to increased orders for companies in both sectors, helping to drive the improvement. Moreover, in early April, India’s international reserves hit an all-time high of USD 426 billion. However, in the same month, the merchandise trade deficit remained stubbornly large, and the cost of long-term government debt reached a two-year high. The higher cost of government debt suggests that investors are beginning to doubt that official fiscal targets, which include bringing the deficit down to 3.0% of GDP by March 2021, can be achieved.India Economic Growth
A normalization in cash conditions following the demonetization of late 2016 and the fading of disruptions from last year’s launch of the Goods and Services Tax should facilitate the economic recovery this year. A FY 2018 budget skewed to benefit rural incomes should also boost private consumption. Nonetheless, risks of fiscal slippage and concerns over India’s banking sector cloud prospects. Our panel expects GDP growth of 7.3% in FY 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 7.4% in FY 2019.India Economy Data
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India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 7.81 | -0.04 % | May 21 |
| Exchange Rate | 68.11 | -0.09 % | May 21 |
| Stock Market | 34,616 | -0.08 % | May 21 |
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India Economic News
India: Merchandise exports rebound in April but the trade deficit remains
May 15, 2018
In April, merchandise exports expanded 5.2% compared to the same month last year, contrasting the 0.7% contraction recorded in March and totaling USD 25.9 billion.
India: Inflation picks up in April
May 14, 2018
In April, consumer prices rose 0.44% from the previous month, accelerating from the 0.07% rise recorded in March and representing the strongest increase in five months.
India: Business conditions for both manufacturing and service companies improve in April
May 4, 2018
Business conditions improved in April, with both the services and manufacturing PMIs advancing further into expansionary territory.
India: Trade deficit widens in March on robust domestic demand and feeble exports
April 13, 2018
Merchandise exports contracted 0.7% from the same month of the previous year in March, contrasting the 4.5% increase recorded in February and totaling USD 29.1 billion.
India: Industrial production growth moderates slightly in February
April 12, 2018
Industrial production growth eased to 7.1% in annual terms in February, down from January’s revised 7.4% increase (previously reported: +7.5% year-on-year) and coming in above market expectations of a 6.8% rise.
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