India Economic Forecast

India Economic Outlook

January 22, 2019

The economy appeared to perform quite well in the third quarter of fiscal year 2018, which ran from October to December, after a slowdown in the second quarter. In Q3, economic activity in the private sector increased at the fastest pace since the current survey data series began in January 2016. However, in the same period, the merchandise trade deficit widened slightly year-on-year. Looking ahead, the government will unveil its interim budget for the 2019 fiscal year on 1 February, which will cover its accounts until a new government is formed after the May general elections. After a spate of poor electoral showings for his party in December, Prime Minister Modi could resort to further populist spending measures, which would have negative ramifications for the already-strained public finances.

India Economic Growth

Looking to the next fiscal year, economic growth is expected to remain broadly stable, underpinned by strong government consumption. However, government fiscal slippage, global trade protectionism and oil price volatility all cloud prospects. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 7.3% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 7.3% again in FY 2020.

India Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1,2501,2661,2831,3001,317
GDP per capita (USD)1,4881,6141,6321,7501,979
GDP (USD bn)1,8592,0442,0942,2752,607
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.47.48.27.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)7.36.47.47.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)1.62.65.210.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.34.13.44.54.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)68.567.869.668.970.2
Money (annual variation in %)12.310.711.56.321.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.25.34.83.94.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.06.04.94.53.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.21.3-3.61.82.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.007.506.756.256.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)18.924.9-9.416.911.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)60.0262.2966.2564.8665.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)60.4261.1465.4267.0464.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.4-1.1-0.7-1.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-32.8-27.6-22.1-15.2-48.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-136.6-137.5-117.2-109.0-157.0
Exports (USD billion)314311262275303
Imports (USD billion)451448379384460
Exports (annual variation in %)4.6-1.2-15.65.110.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-8.0-0.6-15.41.319.7
International Reserves (USD)304341356373421
External Debt (% of GDP)24.023.223.220.7-  

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India Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.52-0.04 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate71.02-0.09 %Feb 14
Stock Market35,876-0.08 %Feb 14

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