India Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
GDP likely recovered relatively robustly in Q3 (Q2 FY 2020) as large swaths of the economy came back online, leading to a softer contraction in the industrial and services sectors, while agricultural output should have expanded at a stronger pace. Turning to Q4 (Q3 FY 2020), economic activity should be improving: In October, the services sector PMI posted the first expansion since March, while the manufacturing PMI indicated output growth hit a 13-year high. However, shrinking employment in October and lingering targeted containment measures likely continue to weigh on household spending. In November, the government outlined the third installment of stimulus to combat the fallout from Covid-19, focusing largely on credit growth, job creation and infrastructure. Total spending on Covid-19 relief amounts to roughly 2.0% of GDP now—but will likely have a limited impact on the ongoing recovery and its fiscal position.India Economic Growth
The economy is projected to decline in FY 2020 (April 2020–March 2021) as Covid-19 containment measures hamper domestic activity and external demand. Moreover, the ongoing spread of the virus and potential snap-back of lockdown measures, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures falling well short of the mark, continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to fall 9.3% in FY 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and increase 9.2% in FY 2021.India Economy Data
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India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.50 | -0.04 % | Jan 01 |
| Exchange Rate | 71.23 | -0.09 % | Jan 01 |
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India Economic News
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India: Merchandise export growth moderates in June
July 15, 2021
Merchandise exports jumped 48.2% in annual terms in June, following May’s 69.4% upturn.
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India: Industrial output growth eases from April’s record rate in May
July 12, 2021
Industrial output increased 29.3% in year-on-year terms in May, which followed April's 134.6% jump.
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India: Inflation holds stable in June
July 12, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.56% in June over the previous month, coming in below May's 1.65% increase.
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India: Private-sector PMI falls deeper into contractionary territory in June
July 5, 2021
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit fell from 48.1 in May to 43.1 in June.
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India: Merchandise exports rise at a softer pace in May
June 15, 2021
Merchandise exports jumped 69.4% over the same month last year in May, following April’s 195.7% jump.
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