India Economic Outlook
September 21, 2021GDP growth hit a record high in the second quarter (FY Q1 2021), predominately driven by a low base effect. Domestic demand surged on the back of stronger private consumption and fixed investment growth, but public spending declined, capping the overall gain. On the external side, soaring imports outpaced growth in exports, and consequently the external sector dragged heavily on the overall reading. Turning to Q3 (FY Q2 2021), economic momentum has likely eased—partly due to the fading impact of the low base effect and elevated uncertainty surrounding the pandemic. Nevertheless, the composite PMI expanded for the first time since March in August, while growth in merchandise exports and imports remained strong, suggesting some resilience in activity midway through the quarter. On the vaccine front, only 57.8 doses had been administered per 100 people of the total population by 19 September.
India Economic GrowthThe economy should expand robustly in FY 2021 (April 2021–March 2022) as domestic activity recovers. In FY 2022, growth should ease slightly but remain upbeat, supported by healthy private spending and fixed investment growth. Uncertainty around the virus and weak fiscal metrics pose risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 8.9% in FY 2021, and increase 7.4% in FY 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast.
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|Bond Yield||6.50||-0.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||71.23||-0.09 %||Jan 01|
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India Economic News
October 14, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.18% from the previous month in September, decelerating from August's 0.25% increase.
October 14, 2021
Merchandise exports shot up 21.2% over the same month last year in September (August: +45.8% year-on-year).
October 8, 2021
At its monetary policy meeting ending on 8 October, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept its policy rates unchanged, which met market expectations.
October 4, 2021
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit fell to 55.3 in September from 55.4 in August.
September 14, 2021
Merchandise export growth eased to 45.8% on an annual basis in August (July: +49.9% year-on-year).