India Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018
GDP accelerated at the fastest pace in over two years in the first quarter of FY 2018, which ran from April to June, buoyed by surging private consumption. Meanwhile, although growth rates in government consumption and fixed investment remained high, they fell from the previous quarter. The external sector dragged slightly on headline economic growth in Q1 but significantly less than in the previous quarter due to a stronger expansion in exports. Going forward, the economic picture looks mixed. On the plus side, business activity in the private sector increased in both July and August, although the pace of expansion in August slowed significantly from July’s 21-month high. However, as questions accumulated over the government’s ability to meet its fiscal targets and the rupee continued to weaken, the 10-year government bond yield hit a four-year high in August.India Economic Growth
In FY 2018, which runs from April 2018 to March 2019, economic growth should accelerate thanks to fading disruptions from the demonetization of November 2016 and the launch of a goods and services tax in July 2017. However, risks of fiscal slippage in the run-up to next year’s general elections, increasing global trade tensions and higher oil prices cloud the outlook. Our panel expects GDP growth of 7.4% in FY 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 7.5% in FY 2019.India Economy Data
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India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 7.87 | -0.04 % | Oct 16 |
| Exchange Rate | 73.47 | -0.09 % | Oct 16 |
| Stock Market | 35,162 | -0.08 % | Oct 16 |
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India Economic News
India: Inflation accelerates modestly in September
October 15, 2018
In September, consumer prices fell 0.07% from the previous month, contrasting the 0.43% rise recorded in August.
India: Industrial production growth slows in August
October 12, 2018
Annual industrial production increased 4.3% in August, down from July’s revised 6.5% (previously reported: +6.6% year-on-year) but above market analysts’ expectations of 3.8% growth. There was a mixed performance across industrial sectors in August.
India: RBI keeps rates unchanged in October
October 5, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 3–5 October, five out of the six members of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep interest rates unchanged.
India: Composite PMI retreats further in September
October 4, 2018
The composite Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and IHS Market, fell to 51.6 in September from 51.9 in August, but remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector.
India: The merchandise trade deficit continues to widen in August
September 14, 2018
In August, merchandise exports increased 19.2% compared to the same month last year, up from the 14.3% expansion recorded in July.
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