India Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019
The economy appeared to perform quite well in the third quarter of fiscal year 2018, which ran from October to December, after a slowdown in the second quarter. In Q3, economic activity in the private sector increased at the fastest pace since the current survey data series began in January 2016. However, in the same period, the merchandise trade deficit widened slightly year-on-year. Looking ahead, the government will unveil its interim budget for the 2019 fiscal year on 1 February, which will cover its accounts until a new government is formed after the May general elections. After a spate of poor electoral showings for his party in December, Prime Minister Modi could resort to further populist spending measures, which would have negative ramifications for the already-strained public finances.India Economic Growth
Looking to the next fiscal year, economic growth is expected to remain broadly stable, underpinned by strong government consumption. However, government fiscal slippage, global trade protectionism and oil price volatility all cloud prospects. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 7.3% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 7.3% again in FY 2020.India Economy Data
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India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 7.52 | -0.04 % | Feb 14 |
| Exchange Rate | 71.02 | -0.09 % | Feb 14 |
| Stock Market | 35,876 | -0.08 % | Feb 14 |
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India Economic News
India: Consumer price inflation slows in January to an over one-year low
February 14, 2019
In January, consumer prices fell 0.29% compared to the previous month, which is less than the revised 0.50% fall in December (previously reported: -0.49% month-on-month).
India: Pre-election budget threatens fiscal sustainability
February 13, 2019
On 1 February the interim budget for fiscal year 2019, which will start in April and run through to March 2020, was unveiled by the government.
India: Industrial production growth accelerates in December
February 12, 2019
Annual industrial production growth accelerated to 2.4% in December, up from November’s revised 0.3% (previously reported: +0.5% year-on-year).
India: Reserve Bank of India delivers a surprise rate cut in February
February 7, 2019
Taking market analysts by surprise, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut all monetary policy rates by 0.25 percentage points at its 7 February meeting.
India: The private sector expands at a steady pace in January
February 5, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market was unchanged in January at December’s 53.6 reading, which was above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector. Although the overall PMI reading held up in January, the services PMI weighed it down because it fell to 52.2 from 53.2 in December.
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