India Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020GDP likely recovered relatively robustly in Q3 (Q2 FY 2020) as large swaths of the economy came back online, leading to a softer contraction in the industrial and services sectors, while agricultural output should have expanded at a stronger pace. Turning to Q4 (Q3 FY 2020), economic activity should be improving: In October, the services sector PMI posted the first expansion since March, while the manufacturing PMI indicated output growth hit a 13-year high. However, shrinking employment in October and lingering targeted containment measures likely continue to weigh on household spending. In November, the government outlined the third installment of stimulus to combat the fallout from Covid-19, focusing largely on credit growth, job creation and infrastructure. Total spending on Covid-19 relief amounts to roughly 2.0% of GDP now—but will likely have a limited impact on the ongoing recovery and its fiscal position.
India Economic GrowthThe economy is projected to decline in FY 2020 (April 2020–March 2021) as Covid-19 containment measures hamper domestic activity and external demand. Moreover, the ongoing spread of the virus and potential snap-back of lockdown measures, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures falling well short of the mark, continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to fall 9.3% in FY 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and increase 9.2% in FY 2021.
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|Bond Yield||6.50||-0.04 %||Jan 01|
|Exchange Rate||71.23||-0.09 %||Jan 01|
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India Economic News
April 15, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.13% in March over the previous month, which was below the 0.19% increase recorded in February.
April 15, 2021
Merchandise exports increased 58.8% in annual terms in March, on the heels of February’s 1.0% expansion.
April 9, 2021
Industrial output decreased 3.6% in February (January: -0.9% yoy).
April 7, 2021
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit fell from 57.3 in February to 56.0 in March.
March 15, 2021
Merchandise exports increased 1.0% in annual terms in February, on the heels of January’s solid 8.2% expansion.