India Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019
The economy appeared to grow at a steady, albeit slightly slower, pace in January–March, with survey data for the private-sector pointing to strong growth throughout the period. This comes after economic growth slowed in October–December. In recent days, the main political parties released their general election manifestos. The incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) announced it would continue investing heavily in infrastructure and supporting farmers. Aside from putting more emphasis on social welfare spending than on infrastructure expenditure, the economic policy of the opposition Indian National Congress does not drastically differ from the BJP. Meanwhile, the World Bank warned on 4 April that public finances could become more fragile because revenue from the goods and services tax has been below expectations and political parties are making large spending promises.India Economic Growth
Economic momentum is expected to remain steady this fiscal year, which started in April. Robust government spending should support growth, as should looser monetary policy and greater political certainty following the elections. However, weak public finances and global trade protectionism both weigh on prospects. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 7.2% in FY 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 7.3% in FY 2020.India Economy Data
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India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 7.47 | -0.04 % | Apr 22 |
| Exchange Rate | 69.70 | -0.09 % | Apr 22 |
| Stock Market | 38,645 | -0.08 % | Apr 22 |
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India Economic News
India: Consumer price inflation accelerates in March, nearly hits mid-point of RBI’s target range
April 15, 2019
In March, consumer prices rose 0.36% compared to the previous month, up from 0.22% in February.
India: Exports gain momentum in March, trade deficit narrows
April 15, 2019
Merchandise export growth in annual terms accelerated to 11.0% in March, noticeably up from 2.4% in February.
India: Industrial production growth tumbles in February
April 12, 2019
Annual industrial production growth decelerated to 0.1% in February from a revised 1.4% in January (previously reported: +1.7% year-on-year), starkly undershooting market analysts’ expectations of 2.0% growth. In terms of sectors, the deceleration was due to a decrease in manufacturing output and slower growth in mining output.
India: Reserve Bank of India cuts rates again in April
April 4, 2019
As widely expected by market analysts, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut all monetary policy rates by 0.25 percentage points at its 2–3 April meeting, reducing the repo rate to 6.00%, the marginal standing facility to 6.25% and the reverse repurchase rate to 5.75%.
India: The private sector expands at a slower pace in March, although business optimism improves
April 4, 2019
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by Nikkei and IHS Market moderated to 52.7 in March from 53.8 in February, moving closer to the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction in the private sector. The services PMI decreased to 52.0 in March from 52.5 in February, which indicates the 10th consecutive month of expansion in the services sector, albeit at the slowest pace since September last year.
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