India Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
GDP likely recovered relatively robustly in Q3 (Q2 FY 2020) as large swaths of the economy came back online, leading to a softer contraction in the industrial and services sectors, while agricultural output should have expanded at a stronger pace. Turning to Q4 (Q3 FY 2020), economic activity should be improving: In October, the services sector PMI posted the first expansion since March, while the manufacturing PMI indicated output growth hit a 13-year high. However, shrinking employment in October and lingering targeted containment measures likely continue to weigh on household spending. In November, the government outlined the third installment of stimulus to combat the fallout from Covid-19, focusing largely on credit growth, job creation and infrastructure. Total spending on Covid-19 relief amounts to roughly 2.0% of GDP now—but will likely have a limited impact on the ongoing recovery and its fiscal position.India Economic Growth
The economy is projected to decline in FY 2020 (April 2020–March 2021) as Covid-19 containment measures hamper domestic activity and external demand. Moreover, the ongoing spread of the virus and potential snap-back of lockdown measures, coupled with fiscal stimulus measures falling well short of the mark, continue to pose a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to fall 9.3% in FY 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and increase 9.2% in FY 2021.India Economy Data
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India Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 6.50 | -0.04 % | Jan 01 |
| Exchange Rate | 71.23 | -0.09 % | Jan 01 |
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India Economic News
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India: Industrial activity deteriorates in November
January 12, 2021
Industrial production fell 1.9% year-on-year in November (October: +4.2% yoy).
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India: Inflation falls to over one-year low in December
January 12, 2021
Consumer prices dropped 1.01% over the previous month in December, contrasting November's 0.32% rise.
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India: Private sector PMI dips in December
January 6, 2021
The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit fell from 56.3 in November to 54.9 in December.
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India: Merchandise exports fall at a sharper pace in November
December 15, 2020
Merchandise exports sank 8.7% annually in November, on the heels of October’s 5.1% dive.
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India: Industrial production growth accelerates robustly in October
December 11, 2020
Industrial output increased 3.6% year-on-year in October (September: 0.5% yoy).
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