Guatemala Economic Activity October 2021


Guatemala: Economic activity records lowest growth since February in October

December 9, 2021

Economic activity rose 4.4% in year-on-year terms in October, which followed September's 6.3% increase. October's outturn marked the worst reading since February, but partly due to a less favorable base effect. The reading, moreover, was supported by robust growth in the trade and repair of vehicles; manufacturing; real estate; and agricultural sectors.

Lastly, annual average growth in economic activity rose to 8.0% in October from 7.8% in September.

The print suggests that the economy remained on solid footing at the outset of the fourth quarter; however, the panorama darkened in the quarter and this will likely weigh on activity in the final stretch of the year. Protests erupted in October and November, underlining social unrest. In mid-October, Congress declared a month-long siege in El Estor after civil war veterans stormed and lit on fire congressional offices. In mid-November, members of the Farmer Development Committee hindered road usage throughout the country amid blockages.

GDP is seen expanding 4.5% in 2022. For 2023, our panelists expect the economy to grow 3.6%.


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Guatemala Economic Activity Chart

Guatemala Economic Activity October 2021

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of economic activity in %.
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.

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