Romania: Economic growth slows in Q1
According to a preliminary estimate, growth slowed in the first quarter, coming in at 2.3% on an annual basis (Q4: +4.5% yoy), undershooting market expectations. A full breakdown will not be available until 8 June. Weaker growth in external demand likely weighed on exports, but stronger year-on-year growth in retail sales in Q1 compared to Q4 should have aided private consumption.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy expanded 0.1% in Q4 (Q3: 1.0% qoq s.a.).
Commenting on the outlook, Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc from JPMorgan said:
“The country [Romania] should continue to perform well in the period ahead, despite expected fiscal consolidation. The main reason is related to increased absorption and usage of EU funds; we believe this ensures a stable growth path for Romania. […] In addition, we forecast a growth rebound in the CE3 region [Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic] and in the Eurozone, which should provide an additional lift.”