Egypt: Inflation comes in at highest level in four years in October

Inflation came in at 16.2% in October, which was up from September’s 15.1%, moving further above the upper bound of the Central Bank’s 5.0–9.0% target band—where it has been for the past eight months. October's figure represented the highest inflation rate since October 2018. Looking at the details of the release, the acceleration was primarily driven by surging prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which grew by nearly 24%. Conversely, growth in prices for transportation eased marginally, but still increased by over 17%.

Consequently, the trend pointed up; annual average inflation rose to 11.5% in October (September: 10.6%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 19.0% in October, from September’s 18.0%. October’s result marked the sharpest rate since at least September 2019.

Finally, consumer prices increased 2.56% in October over the previous month, accelerating from September's 1.61% rise. October's figure was the highest reading since April.

Our panelists see inflation averaging 11.4% in CY 2023, which is up 1.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 8.0% in CY 2024.