Ecuador Economic Outlook
October 13, 2020The economy crashed in Q2 due to the twin shock of the Covid-19 outbreak and low oil prices, with GDP plunging at the steepest pace in at least two decades. Household and capital spending were crushed as restrictions crippled activity, while exports languished on a collapse in foreign demand. Moving forward, available data hints that conditions remained depressed in Q3. After some respite in June following the staggering drops in April–May, oil output dipped again in July–August. In the same period, merchandise exports plunged on plummeting sales of crude, which accounts for about a third of export receipts. Slowing credit growth in July–August also points to subdued dynamics. More positively, the IMF approved a USD 6.5 billion loan on 30 September, allowing an immediate disbursement of USD 2.0 billion, to help mitigate the health crisis, restore macro stability and ensure fiscal sustainability.
Ecuador Economic GrowthThe economy is poised to suffer its worst recession in decades this year due to Covid-19. Heavy income and employment losses will batter household spending, while depressed demand and elevated uncertainty will pummel investment and exports. Next year, the recovery is set to remain relatively weak, with political uncertainty and limited fiscal space clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 8.9% in 2020. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 3.1%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic News
October 13, 2020
Economic activity fell 12.8% in year-on-year terms in August, a softer decline than July’s 12.6% drop.
October 6, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.16% over the last month in September, which was softer than 0.32% drop logged in August.
September 30, 2020
The economy was pummeled in the second quarter on the double shock of the Covid-19 outbreak and low oil prices, with GDP collapsing 12.4% on an annual basis (Q1: -2.3% yoy).
September 14, 2020
Economic activity plummeted 19.8% year-on-year in July, falling at a faster pace from June’s revised 17.7% drop (previously reported -24.2% yoy). On a monthly basis, economic activity declined 2.6% in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, matching the previous month’s drop.
September 7, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.32% in August over the last month, which was softer than the 0.61% drop recorded in July.