Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

July 14, 2020

The dual shocks of coronavirus and the sharp fall in oil prices continued to devastate the economy in Q2, after GDP shrank for the third consecutive quarter in Q1. Oil production collapsed in April, while merchandise exports fell at the sharpest rate in over a decade in the same month. More positively, however, on 6 July the government reached a provisional agreement with some of its largest private creditors to restructure USD 17.4 billion of outstanding debt, providing it with some much-needed breathing space. The accord comes as authorities are also negotiating a new credit line with the IMF, for which they hope to have an agreement by end-August, and further financing from China. Meanwhile, on 7 July, Vice President Otto Sonnenholzner, who has been instrumental in leading the government’s Covid-19 response, resigned, forcing President Lenin Moreno to reshuffle his cabinet.

Ecuador Economic Growth

The economy is expected to shrink markedly this year as the coronavirus crisis takes its toll. Social distancing measures are set to hammer domestic activity, while muted global oil prices will cripple exports and government revenue. The duration of the health crisis and political uncertainty regarding the 2021 general elections further cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 8.1% in 2020, which is from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 3.0%.

Ecuador Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.516.817.017.3
GDP per capita (USD)6,0996,0466,2176,3196,222
GDP (USD bn)99.399.9104108107
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.1-1.22.41.30.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.3-2.03.62.40.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.2-8.95.32.0-3.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate4.35.44.44.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-8.2-4.5-3.1-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.038.244.646.050.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.41.1-0.20.3-0.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.01.70.4-0.20.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)5.145.124.955.626.22
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.21.1-0.1-1.2-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.21.1-0.2-1.3-0.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.20.5-0.9-1.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)18.316.819.121.622.3
Imports (USD billion)21.516.320.023.222.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-28.7-8.413.813.13.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-22.4-24.122.615.8-2.6
International Reserves (USD)2.54.32.52.73.4
External Debt (% of GDP)27.634.238.540.948.7

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Ecuador Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Dec 31

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