Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

December 4, 2018

An acceleration in economic activity throughout the third quarter suggests the economy sped up from Q2. While oil production was higher on average in Q3 compared to the previous quarter, the output of the petroleum sector in the first nine months was below the same period of last year, as the country’s state-owned oil company Petroamazonas EP slashed production. Reflecting the trend in oil production, export growth picked up in July and August before moderating in September. Meanwhile, a strong inflow of remittances has boosted household incomes and supported solid growth in private consumption. In other news, the government recently presented the 2019 budget to Congress. It aims to gradually reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.2%, mainly thanks to higher oil revenues and by cutting public sector wages.

Ecuador Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose steam next year as the government slashes public spending to strengthen its fiscal account. Private consumption will also likely lose ground as inflation picks up and credit growth weakens. While measures are underway to close the fiscal gap, the economy might be hard-pressed to achieve its 2019 financing plan without IMF assistance. Meanwhile, tighter global financial conditions pose downside risks, due to the dollarized economy’s heavy reliance on external financing. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth slowing to 1.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before rising to 1.2% in 2020.

Ecuador Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.816.016.316.516.8
GDP per capita (USD)6,0306,3476,0995,9666,143
GDP (USD bn)95.110299.398.6103
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.03.80.1-1.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.13.50.3-3.34.7
Investment (annual variation in %)10.42.3-6.2-8.1-0.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.23.7-0.4-2.52.1
Unemployment Rate4.04.34.35.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.9-9.6-6.2-7.4-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.029.633.038.745.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.73.73.41.1-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.73.64.01.70.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.1-0.71.71.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.535.185.145.124.95
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.0-0.5-2.11.5-0.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.5-2.11.4-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.9-2.0-3.20.5-0.9
Exports (USD billion)24.825.718.316.819.1
Imports (USD billion)25.827.721.516.320.0
Exports (annual variation in %)4.63.5-28.7-8.413.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.57.6-22.4-24.122.6
International Reserves (USD)4.44.02.54.32.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.623.627.634.138.2

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Dec 12
Stock Market1,4050.17 %Dec 12

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