Ecuador Economic Outlook
October 9, 2018Recently-released GDP data showed that the economy lost pace again in the second quarter, growing at the weakest pace in a year and a half, as the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts gained strength. Preliminary data for the first six months revealed that a fall in new spending, along with reduced costs in recurrent spending, have led to notable fiscal tightening over this time frame. A significant dependence on external financing makes the dollarized economy especially vulnerable to tighter global financial conditions and raises increasing concerns over the sources of debt financing for the Andean nation. Despite the challenges facing the economy, the appointment of business-friendly Richard Martinez as economy and finance minister in May has helped lift economic sentiment. Available data points to an acceleration in growth at the outset of Q3: Economic activity grew at a swifter pace in July, reflecting a surge in oil production compared to the previous month. However, while still in double digits, private credit growth continued to deteriorate, tumbling to a 14-month low in the same month.
Ecuador Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to lose ground this year and next, owing to the government’s fiscal tightening plans and reduced oil production, which will likely dent overall economic activity. Austerity is likely to weigh on the economy in the short- to medium-term. Private consumption growth is also expected to lose pace, likely owing to moderating private credit growth. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth slowing to 1.3% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||25,000||0.0 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||1,393||0.17 %||Oct 12|
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Ecuador Economic News
October 5, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.39% over the previous month in September, following a 0.27% month-on-month increase in August.
October 1, 2018
Ecuador’s economy lost steam again in the second quarter, with annual GDP growth falling to 0.9%, down from 1.6% in the first quarter as the government’s austerity drive restrained the pace of expansion through weaker domestic demand.
September 14, 2018
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity grew 4.0% over the same month of the previous year in July, after a 3.0% year-on-year expansion in June (previously reported: +3.8% year-on-year).
September 6, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.27% over the previous month in August after coming in flat in July.
August 14, 2018
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity increased 3.8% over the same month of the previous year in June, accelerating from the revised 2.9% year-on-year rise in May (previously reported: +3.8% year-on-year) and marking the best print in since November 2014.