Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

September 12, 2017

The economy resumed its upward trajectory in June to close the second quarter on a high note. The Central Bank’s economic activity indicator jumped in June after two consecutive months of sub-par growth. Together with increasing consumer and business confidence, the economic upswing is likely to have carried over into the third quarter. However, political turmoil continues to plague the country’s short-term economic prospects. Newly-installed president Lenín Moreno has shown a remarkable degree of autonomy in the early days of his term, to the point of engaging in a war of words with his predecessor Rafael Correa. Moreno has been encouraging investigators to look into corruption allegations against the previous government, and Vice-President Jorge Glas was already stripped of his powers last month because of his alleged involvement in the Odebrecht scandal.

Ecuador Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)15.515.816.016.316.5
GDP per capita (USD)5,6656,0306,3826,1546,079
GDP (USD bn)87.995.1102100100
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.65.04.00.2-1.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.35.13.80.0-2.1
Investment (annual variation in %)10.610.43.8-5.9-8.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.46.22.9-0.8-0.5
Unemployment Rate4.14.04.34.35.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.9-4.6-5.3-5.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.224.029.532.737.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.22.73.73.41.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.12.73.64.01.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.03.13.11.7-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.534.535.185.145.12
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.2-1.0-0.5-2.11.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-0.9-0.5-2.11.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.7-0.6-2.0-3.20.5
Exports (USD billion)23.824.825.718.316.8
Imports (USD billion)25.525.527.721.516.3
Exports (annual variation in %)6.54.63.5-28.7-8.4
Imports (annual variation in %)4.30.08.8-22.4-24.1
International Reserves (USD)2.54.44.02.54.3
External Debt (% of GDP)18.219.823.827.133.8

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Stock Market1,1970.0 %Sep 21

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Ecuador Economic Growth

September 12, 2017

A healthier oil market could provide the main impetus for growth this year, but serious concerns regarding the sustainability of the country’s fiscal position and financing arrangements will continue to cloud the outlook. Our panelists see GDP growing 0.6% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2018, panelists expect the economy to grow 0.9%.

Ecuador Economic News

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