Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

July 10, 2018

Economic growth slipped considerably in the first quarter, largely owing to a marked slowdown in government spending stemming from the drive towards fiscal consolidation by President Lenín Moreno’s administration. While economic activity was more upbeat at the start of the second quarter, challenges to the economy’s prospects are intensifying from inflation being entrenched in negative territory. Although activity in April expanded at more than twice the pace of the previous month, the rate was still relatively tepid; the positive readings followed six consecutive months of slight contraction. However, oil production figures for the January–May period showed a contraction in output compared to the same period of the previous year, partially due to compliance with the OPEC agreement. Household consumption also likely continued on a downward trend from the previous quarter, due to a slight slowdown in private credit growth.

Ecuador Economic Growth

A surge in oil prices, higher investment in the oil sector and a recently secured USD 400 million in new financing from the World Bank should keep the economy on a path of expansion this year. Growth in the short- to medium-term is expected to lose considerable pace, however, remaining weak as the government’s planned austerity program aimed at cutting the fiscal deficit restrains activity. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth slowing to 1.6% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.3% in 2019.

Ecuador Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.816.016.316.516.8
GDP per capita (USD)6,0306,3476,0995,9666,143
GDP (USD bn)95.110299.398.6103
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.03.80.1-1.63.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.13.50.3-3.34.7
Investment (annual variation in %)10.42.3-6.2-8.1-0.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)6.23.7-0.4-2.52.1
Unemployment Rate4.04.34.35.4-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.9-9.6-6.2-7.4-5.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.029.633.038.745.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.73.73.41.1-0.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.73.64.01.70.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)3.1-0.71.71.3-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)4.535.185.145.124.95
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.0-0.5-2.11.5-0.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.5-2.11.4-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.9-2.0-3.20.5-0.9
Exports (USD billion)24.825.718.316.819.1
Imports (USD billion)25.827.721.516.320.0
Exports (annual variation in %)4.63.5-28.7-8.413.8
Imports (annual variation in %)6.57.6-22.4-24.122.6
International Reserves (USD)4.44.02.54.32.5
External Debt (% of GDP)19.623.627.634.138.2

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Ecuador Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Jul 11
Stock Market1,3100.17 %Jul 11

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