Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

May 17, 2022

The economy appeared to lose momentum in Q1: Economic activity grew on average at a slower rate in January–February than it did last year. This is partially due to a tougher base effect, but underlying conditions may have also slowed. Oil production was down year on year in the quarter due to the disruption to output caused by natural disasters in December and January. Meanwhile, investment may have been restrained by a deteriorating relationship between the president and the legislature. That said, rising consumer confidence and record car sales in the quarter suggest private spending may have held up well in Q1 despite the impact of the Omicron Covid-19 variant. Turning to Q2, the political situation appears to be deteriorating further: Four cabinet ministers resigned in April, with the president’s popularity facing challenges amid a spike in violent crime.

Ecuador Economic Growth

This year, growth will likely be insufficient to bring GDP back to its pre-pandemic levels. Rising inflation will hit private spending despite government subsidies. That said, high energy prices will boost the country’s external and fiscal balances. Key risks to the outlook include commodity prices and volatile weather conditions. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.9% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees GDP growth moderating to 2.3%.

Ecuador Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.516.817.017.3
GDP per capita (USD)6,0996,0466,2176,3196,222
GDP (USD bn)99.399.9104108107
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.1-1.22.41.30.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.3-2.03.62.40.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.2-8.95.32.0-3.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate4.35.44.44.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-8.2-4.5-3.1-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.038.244.646.050.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.41.1-0.20.3-0.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.01.70.4-0.20.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)5.145.124.955.626.22
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.21.1-0.1-1.2-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.21.1-0.2-1.3-0.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.20.5-0.9-1.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)18.316.819.121.622.3
Imports (USD billion)21.516.320.023.222.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-28.7-8.413.813.13.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-22.4-24.122.615.8-2.6
International Reserves (USD)2.54.32.52.73.4
External Debt (% of GDP)27.634.238.540.948.7

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Ecuador Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Dec 31

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