Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

October 13, 2020

The economy crashed in Q2 due to the twin shock of the Covid-19 outbreak and low oil prices, with GDP plunging at the steepest pace in at least two decades. Household and capital spending were crushed as restrictions crippled activity, while exports languished on a collapse in foreign demand. Moving forward, available data hints that conditions remained depressed in Q3. After some respite in June following the staggering drops in April–May, oil output dipped again in July–August. In the same period, merchandise exports plunged on plummeting sales of crude, which accounts for about a third of export receipts. Slowing credit growth in July–August also points to subdued dynamics. More positively, the IMF approved a USD 6.5 billion loan on 30 September, allowing an immediate disbursement of USD 2.0 billion, to help mitigate the health crisis, restore macro stability and ensure fiscal sustainability.

Ecuador Economic Growth

The economy is poised to suffer its worst recession in decades this year due to Covid-19. Heavy income and employment losses will batter household spending, while depressed demand and elevated uncertainty will pummel investment and exports. Next year, the recovery is set to remain relatively weak, with political uncertainty and limited fiscal space clouding the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to contract 8.9% in 2020. For 2021, the panel sees GDP growth at 3.1%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Ecuador Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.516.817.017.3
GDP per capita (USD)6,0996,0466,2176,3196,222
GDP (USD bn)99.399.9104108107
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.1-
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.3-
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.2-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate4.  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-8.2-4.5-3.1-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.41.1-0.20.3-0.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.21.1-0.1-1.2-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.21.1-0.2-1.3-0.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.20.5-0.9-1.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)18.316.819.121.622.3
Imports (USD billion)21.516.320.023.222.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-28.7-8.413.813.13.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-22.4-24.122.615.8-2.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)27.634.238.540.948.7

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Ecuador Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Dec 31

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