Ecuador Economic Outlook
February 13, 2018New data points to a slowdown in the final quarter of 2017. Economic activity contracted year-on-year for the third consecutive month in November, although the rate of decline eased slightly from October. Lower oil production in compliance with OPEC’s output cutback agreement was partly behind the deterioration: Oil output was 3.3% lower in the first eleven months of the year compared to the same period of 2016. Despite exports accelerating in November, imports again expanded at a faster rate, weighing on overall growth for the fourth month running. An upturn in oil production in December, however, likely yielded an improvement in the economic activity index. In the political sphere, a victory for President Lenín Moreno in the disputed nationwide referendum held on 4 February granted him a long-sought mandate to implement constitutional changes and advance an agenda that deviates from former president Rafael Correa’s position.
Ecuador Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to grow at a subdued pace this year, with growth falling short of the 2017 rate. Reduced oil output, along with planned austerity measures aimed at reducing the debt burden, are likely to dent overall economic activity. Risks to the outlook stem from the nation’s high dependence on external borrowing, potentially jeopardizing long-term financial stability. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth slowing to 1.7% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.3% in 2019.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||25,000||0.0 %||Feb 22|
|Stock Market||1,250||0.17 %||Feb 22|
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Ecuador Economic News
February 13, 2018
A contentious national referendum held on 4 February awarded President Lenín Moreno a resounding victory over comrade-turned-foe, former president Rafael Correa, paving the way for Moreno to consolidate power.
February 7, 2018
Consumer prices increased 0.19% over the previous month in January, following a 0.18% month-on-month rise in December.
January 15, 2018
In November, economic activity contracted 0.8% in annual terms, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
January 8, 2018
In December, consumer prices rose 0.18% over the previous month, contrasting a 0.27% drop in November.
December 30, 2017
Ecuador’s economic recovery continued to gain steam in the third quarter of 2017: Annual GDP growth rose to 3.8%, following a revised 2.9% year-on-year expansion in the second quarter (previously reported: +3.3% year-on-year).