Ecuador Economic Outlook
July 10, 2018
Economic growth slipped considerably in the first quarter, largely owing to a marked slowdown in government spending stemming from the drive towards fiscal consolidation by President Lenín Moreno’s administration. While economic activity was more upbeat at the start of the second quarter, challenges to the economy’s prospects are intensifying from inflation being entrenched in negative territory. Although activity in April expanded at more than twice the pace of the previous month, the rate was still relatively tepid; the positive readings followed six consecutive months of slight contraction. However, oil production figures for the January–May period showed a contraction in output compared to the same period of the previous year, partially due to compliance with the OPEC agreement. Household consumption also likely continued on a downward trend from the previous quarter, due to a slight slowdown in private credit growth.Ecuador Economic Growth
A surge in oil prices, higher investment in the oil sector and a recently secured USD 400 million in new financing from the World Bank should keep the economy on a path of expansion this year. Growth in the short- to medium-term is expected to lose considerable pace, however, remaining weak as the government’s planned austerity program aimed at cutting the fiscal deficit restrains activity. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP growth slowing to 1.6% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.3% in 2019.Ecuador Economy Data
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Ecuador Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 25,000 | 0.0 % | Jul 11 |
| Stock Market | 1,310 | 0.17 % | Jul 11 |
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Ecuador Economic News
Ecuador: Consumer prices on an annual basis continue on downward trend in June
July 6, 2018
Consumer prices declined 0.27% over the previous month in June, marking a bigger drop than the revised 0.18% month-on-month fall in May.
Ecuador: Economy slows markedly in Q1 amid drive to strengthen fiscal metrics
July 3, 2018
Ecuador’s economic recovery lost considerable ground in the first quarter, with the economy growing at a substantially weaker pace compared to the preceding quarter: Annual GDP growth slowed to 1.9% in Q1, down from 3.0% in Q4.
Ecuador: Economic activity in April grows at twice the pace of March
June 15, 2018
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity rose 1.7% over the same month of the previous year in April, marking a bigger increase than the revised 0.8% year-on-year upturn in March (previously reported: +1.1% year-on-year).
Ecuador: Consumer prices on an annual basis drop by bigger magnitude in May
June 6, 2018
Consumer prices dropped 0.18% over the previous month in May, a slightly bigger decline than the 0.14% month-on-month fall in April.
Ecuador: Economic activity expands at faster pace in March
May 14, 2018
According to the monthly indicator economic activity (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity grew 1.1% over the same month of the previous year in March, following a revised 0.2% year-on-year rise in February (previously reported: 0.0% year-on-year). In month-on-month, seasonally-adjusted terms, economic activity increased 0.9% in March, following a revised 0.8% upturn in February (previously reported: +0.7% month-on-month).
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