Ecuador Economic Outlook
May 17, 2022The economy appeared to lose momentum in Q1: Economic activity grew on average at a slower rate in January–February than it did last year. This is partially due to a tougher base effect, but underlying conditions may have also slowed. Oil production was down year on year in the quarter due to the disruption to output caused by natural disasters in December and January. Meanwhile, investment may have been restrained by a deteriorating relationship between the president and the legislature. That said, rising consumer confidence and record car sales in the quarter suggest private spending may have held up well in Q1 despite the impact of the Omicron Covid-19 variant. Turning to Q2, the political situation appears to be deteriorating further: Four cabinet ministers resigned in April, with the president’s popularity facing challenges amid a spike in violent crime.
Ecuador Economic GrowthThis year, growth will likely be insufficient to bring GDP back to its pre-pandemic levels. Rising inflation will hit private spending despite government subsidies. That said, high energy prices will boost the country’s external and fiscal balances. Key risks to the outlook include commodity prices and volatile weather conditions. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 2.9% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the panel sees GDP growth moderating to 2.3%.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic News
May 6, 2022
Consumer prices increased 0.59% over the previous month in April, picking up from the 0.11% increase recorded in March.
April 18, 2022
Economic activity increased 12.1% compared to the same month of the previous year in February, which was a deterioration from January's 14.9% increase.
April 6, 2022
Consumer prices rose 0.11% over the prior month in March, following February’s 0.23% increase.
April 6, 2022
Economic activity expanded 14.9% compared to the same month of the previous year in January, rising from December’s 13.0% increase.
March 30, 2022
GDP increased 4.9% in annual terms in the fourth quarter, below Q3’s 5.6% expansion, largely due to a less favorable base effect as conditions continued to strengthen in sequential terms. Slower growth at the tail end of the year was predominately due to softer domestic demand dynamics.