Ecuador Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020On the heels of the sharpest GDP contraction in at least two decades in Q2 owing to the Covid-19 shock, available data suggests that conditions improved somewhat in Q3, but remained downbeat overall. Although the decline in economic activity eased from April’s collapse through July, it sharpened slightly again in August. Moreover, following weather-related disruptions to the country’s two main pipelines that sent oil production crashing in Q2, output rose by around 50%, on average, in July–August. However, the recovery in oil prices was cut short and plateaued for the entire third quarter, while crude production was still down year-on-year in that two-month period. Additionally, credit growth slowed for the sixth month running in August, hitting a near four-year low, which, coupled with sustained and significant import compression in July–August, hints at internal demand still struggling to gain traction.
Ecuador Economic GrowthAfter the worst economic downturn in recent history this year due to the Covid-19 blow, activity is set to rebound in 2021 as domestic and external demand gradually revive. That said, numerous risks linger, including still-high unemployment weighing on household spending, limited fiscal space to boost the recovery, and policy uncertainty ahead of next year’s elections. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.7% in 2021, which is up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, the panel sees GDP growth moderating to 2.4%.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic News
March 15, 2021
Economic activity tumbled 5.0% in year-on-year terms in the first month of 2021, dropping at a faster pace than December’s 0.7% decline and falling at sharpest rate since September 2020.
February 16, 2021
Economic activity rose 3.9% in year-on-year terms in December 2020, picking up from the 0.6% uptick logged in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, economic activity increased 1.6% in December, slightly above November’s 1.5% climb.
February 4, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.08% from the previous month in February, following the 0.12% increase in January.
January 19, 2021
On 7 February, Ecuadoreans will head to the polls to elect a new president and members of the 137-seat National Assembly.
January 15, 2021
Economic activity ticked up 0.6% in year-on-year terms in November, easing notably from October’s 5.8% jump which had marked the strongest increase in two years.