Ecuador Economic Outlook
February 12, 2019Economic activity appears to have weakened last year on a downturn in domestic demand. A slowdown in remittance inflows, moderating credit growth and the return of inflation likely weighed on private consumption in the second half of the year, while fiscal austerity measures have curbed government spending. Liquidity problems, arising from the scarcity of additional funds needed to finance the weighty external debt and this year’s nearly USD 8 billion budget, prompted the country to issue USD 1 billion in 10-year government bonds at the end of January. The debt sale, which offered one of the highest yields since the financial crisis, surprised investors as the Andean nation has yet to complete talks with the IMF over a possible support program. The country is seeking to reconcile President Lenín Moreno’s “prosperity plan” with a clear commitment to balancing the books in order to strike a deal with the IMF.
Ecuador Economic GrowthMomentum is expected to wane again in 2019, with the FocusEconomics panel projecting an expansion of 0.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. The government’s austerity plan and shortage of funds will likely impact private consumption through the reduced availability of credit, while tighter global financial conditions weigh on overall economic activity. Downside risks stem from uncertainty over the sources of financing, especially the failure to secure an IMF deal, which could panic investors. The panel sees GDP growth edging up to 1.2% in 2020.
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|Exchange Rate||25,000||0.0 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||1,428||0.17 %||Feb 14|
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Ecuador Economic News
Ecuador: Economic activity accelerates again in December, growing at the fastest pace in over four years
February 14, 2019
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity accelerated for the tenth month running in December, expanding 6.6% over the same month of the previous year.
February 8, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.47% over the previous month in January, following a 0.10% month-on-month rise in December.
January 18, 2019
According to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador, economic activity gained strength for the ninth consecutive month in November, growing 5.9% over the same month of the previous year.
January 7, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.10% over the previous month in December, after declining 0.25% month-on-month in November.
January 2, 2019
Ecuador’s economy accelerated slightly in the third quarter, with annual GDP growth edging up to 1.4%, from the second quarter’s 1.2% year-on-year expansion—the slowest since Q4 2016.