Ecuador Economic Forecast

Ecuador Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

On the heels of the sharpest GDP contraction in at least two decades in Q2 owing to the Covid-19 shock, available data suggests that conditions improved somewhat in Q3, but remained downbeat overall. Although the decline in economic activity eased from April’s collapse through July, it sharpened slightly again in August. Moreover, following weather-related disruptions to the country’s two main pipelines that sent oil production crashing in Q2, output rose by around 50%, on average, in July–August. However, the recovery in oil prices was cut short and plateaued for the entire third quarter, while crude production was still down year-on-year in that two-month period. Additionally, credit growth slowed for the sixth month running in August, hitting a near four-year low, which, coupled with sustained and significant import compression in July–August, hints at internal demand still struggling to gain traction.

Ecuador Economic Growth

After the worst economic downturn in recent history this year due to the Covid-19 blow, activity is set to rebound in 2021 as domestic and external demand gradually revive. That said, numerous risks linger, including still-high unemployment weighing on household spending, limited fiscal space to boost the recovery, and policy uncertainty ahead of next year’s elections. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.7% in 2021, which is up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, the panel sees GDP growth moderating to 2.4%.

Ecuador Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.316.516.817.017.3
GDP per capita (USD)6,0996,0466,2176,3196,222
GDP (USD bn)99.399.9104108107
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.1-1.22.41.30.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.3-2.03.62.40.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-6.2-8.95.32.0-3.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate4.35.44.44.1-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.1-8.2-4.5-3.1-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.038.244.646.050.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.41.1-0.20.3-0.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.01.70.4-0.20.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)5.145.124.955.626.22
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.21.1-0.1-1.2-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.21.1-0.2-1.3-0.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.20.5-0.9-1.5-0.2
Exports (USD billion)18.316.819.121.622.3
Imports (USD billion)21.516.320.023.222.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-28.7-8.413.813.13.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-22.4-24.122.615.8-2.6
International Reserves (USD)2.54.32.52.73.4
External Debt (% of GDP)27.634.238.540.948.7

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Ecuador Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate25,0000.0 %Dec 31

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