Ecuador Economic Outlook
September 10, 2019Growth is expected to have deteriorated in the second quarter, as IMF-mandated fiscal consolidation measures and falling real wage growth weigh on economic activity. That said, activity picked up throughout Q2 and export growth bounced back in the quarter on a surge in oil sales at the beginning of the period, reflecting higher oil prices. Furthermore, the belt-tightening reforms have led to an improved fiscal position, with the budget surplus widening in April–May, while international reserves trended up strongly in the first two quarters and remained solid at the outset of Q3 despite sliding in July. In the political arena, on 8 August, the National Court of Justice ordered the preventive detention of former-President Rafael Correa and four close party aides over briberies linked to the awarding of public-sector contracts and illicit funding of the Alianza País party.
Ecuador Economic GrowthGrowth is seen flat this year as fiscal adjustment measures weigh on activity. A slowdown in credit expansion and weak business sentiment are expected to weigh on fixed investment, while reduced real wage growth will limit private consumption gains. That said, the fiscal position is projected to improve, while reserves will gradually strengthen amid reduced borrowing costs. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 0.0% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and to grow 0.5% in 2020.
Ecuador Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||25,000||0.0 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||1,329||0.17 %||Sep 04|
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Ecuador Economic News
September 5, 2019
Consumer prices declined 0.1% in August, contrasting a 0.1% rise in July.
August 21, 2019
Economic activity rose 2.2% over the same month of the previous year in June, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
August 6, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.1% in July, after coming in flat in June.
July 12, 2019
Economic activity rose 1.9% over the same month of the previous year in May, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC, Indice de Actividad Económica Coyuntural) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
July 4, 2019
Consumer prices decreased 0.04% in June, slightly down from May’s flat result, as lower food prices were only partly offset by higher costs for transport and healthcare.