Ecuador Economic Outlook
February 18, 2020Available data suggests that the economy remained subdued in the final quarter of 2019, after it shrank for the first time in three years in the third quarter on falling domestic demand. Economic activity contracted, on average, at a faster clip in October–November compared to Q3, while credit growth eased in Q4, hinting that household spending and fixed investment likely faltered. In other news, on 6 February Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit rating from B3 to Caa1. Political and social resistance has slowed the government’s implementation of IMF-backed fiscal policy reforms, constraining investor demand for public debt ahead of the government’s heavy repayment schedule starting in 2022. However, the agency changed the outlook from negative to stable as risks to debt repayments are expected to remain contained before 2022.
Ecuador Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to rebound mildly this year as fixed investment recovers on the back of improving business conditions. However, political uncertainty ahead of next year’s elections and the risk of protests and strikes as the government attempts to reduce its wage bill are key threats to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy growing 0.3% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and see growth accelerating to 0.9% in 2021.
Ecuador Economy Data
5 years of Ecuador economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Ecuador Economic News
February 17, 2020
In December, economic activity fell 1.7% over the same month of 2018, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
February 6, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.2% over the previous month in January, following December’s flat reading.
January 14, 2020
In November, economic activity fell 0.3% over the same month of 2018, according to the monthly economic activity indicator (IDEAC) released by the Central Bank of Ecuador.
January 7, 2020
Consumer prices were stable over the previous month in December, following their 0.7% drop in November.
January 2, 2020
The economy contracted for the first time since Q3 2016 in the third quarter as GDP fell 0.1% on an annual basis, contrasting the revised 0.6% expansion in the second quarter (previously reported: +0.3% year-on-year).