China Trade Balance November 2018

China

China: Trade figures moderate in November

December 8, 2018

Export growth decelerated from 15.6% in October to 5.4% in November. The print was the weakest growth in eight months and nearly halved the 10.0% increase that market analysts had expected.

Imports expanded a mild 3.0% over the same month last year in November, which undershot October’s 21.4% increase. The print represented the weakest expansion in over two years and came in well below the 14.5% expansion that market analysts had forecast.

The trade surplus rose from USD 38.4 billion in November 2017 to USD 44.8 billion in November 2018 (October 2018: USD 34.0 billion). The 12-month moving sum of the trade surplus increased from USD 347 billion in October to USD 353 billion in November.

Our panelists forecast that exports will expand 5.7% in 2019 and imports will rise 8.0%, bringing the trade surplus to USD 316 billion. In 2020, FocusEconomics panelists expect exports will expand 2.9%, while imports will rise 5.8%, bringing down the trade surplus to USD 258 billion.


Author: Ricard Torné, Lead Economist

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China Trade Balance Chart


China Trade12m November 2018

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China and FocusEconomics calculations.


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