China Money July 2018


China: M2 growth accelerates in July on easing monetary policy

August 13, 2018

In July, Chinese banks distributed CNY 1.45 trillion (USD 211 billion) in new yuan loans, down from the CNY 1.84 trillion distributed in June but above market expectations of a sharper fall to CNY 1.20 trillion. Although lending typically slows in July following robust lending in June, loan distributions were strong this July thanks to a series of monetary policy decisions by the People’s Bank of China that have injected liquidity in the financial system to stimulate lending. In the 12 months up to July, new yuan loans totaled CNY 15.2 trillion (12 months up to June: CNY 14.6 trillion).

Total social financing (TSF)—a broader measure of credit and liquidity in the economy that includes loans, bonds and other non-traditional instruments—fell to CNY 1.04 trillion in July from CNY 1.18 trillion in June.

Meanwhile, annual growth in M2—the broadest measure of money supply in China—rose to a five-month high of 8.5% in July from June’s 8.0% on the back of easing monetary policy. The reading overshot market expectations of 8.2%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect M2 to expand 8.7% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, the panel sees M2 growth of 8.6%.


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China Money Chart

China Money July 2018

Note: New yuan loans in CNY billion and year-on-year variation of M2.
Source: People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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