China Investment April 2020


China: Drop in nominal fixed investment continues to moderate in January-May

June 15, 2020

Nominal urban fixed asset investment fell 6.3% in the first five months of the year compared to the same period in 2019. The print followed the 10.3% year-to-date drop in April and was broadly in line with the 6.0% contraction that market analysts had expected.

Although the all-important secondary and tertiary sectors continued to post contractions in the January-May period, the declines were less steep than in the previous month. Moreover, the primary sector did not contract for the first time this year. In terms of ownership, investment in fixed assets of state-owned enterprises posted a much softer decline in the period compared to the still-large drop in investment among private companies.

On a month-on-month basis, investment in urban fixed assets rose a seasonally-adjusted 5.9% in May, following the 6.2% rise in April.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect nominal fixed-asset investment to grow 2.4% in 2020, which is down 2.2 percentage points from last month’s Consensus. In 2021, the panel sees nominal fixed-asset investment growth at 6.9%.

Author: Ricard Torné, Head of Data Analysis

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China Investment May 20 20

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally adjusted urban fixed-asset investment index and annual growth rate (year-to-date) in %.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS).

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