China: Inflation slows to an over one-year low in February

Consumer prices rose 1.0% from the previous month in February, following January’s 0.5% increase. The acceleration was primarily driven by higher prices for food, especially fresh vegetables, partially reflecting the Chinese New Year holidays, which fell in early February this year.

Inflation declined from January’s 1.7% to an over one-year low of 1.5% in February. The print matched the result that market analysts had expected. Annual average inflation fell from January’s 2.1% to 2.0% in February.

Producer price inflation, meanwhile, was unchanged at January’s 0.1% in February. The reading was below market analysts’ expectations of 0.2%. Declining producer price inflation is expected to impact industrial profit, which could weigh on job creation and investment.

China Inflation Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect that consumer inflation will average 2.2% in 2019, which is from last month’s estimate. In 2020, the panel also sees consumer inflation at 2.2%. Meanwhile, the panel expects producer inflation to be 2.0% in 2019, which is from last month’s projection. In 2020, panelists see producer inflation at 1.7%.