China Industry September 2018


China: Industrial production softens in September

October 19, 2018

Industrial production expanded 5.8% annually in September, down from 6.1% in August and missing market expectations of 6.0%.

September’s print mainly reflected a slowdown in manufacturing output, while the electricity generation and mining sectors recorded steeper growth than in August.

On a month-on-month basis, industrial production increased 0.50% in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, down from August’s 0.53% expansion. Annual average growth in industrial production, meanwhile, edged down from 6.5% in August to 6.4% in September.

September’s weaker performance signals growth in industrial production remains sluggish, and is likely to deteriorate further in coming months due notably to spillovers from the ongoing trade dispute with the United States—which is poised to worsen as the tariff rate on Chinese imports is set to rise at the outset of 2019. On the other hand, recent monetary stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China could help soften this downward trend.

China Industrial Production Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial production to rise 6.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees industrial production growth decelerating to 5.7%.

Author:, Economist

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China Industry Chart

China Industry September 2018

Note: Year-on-year variation of industrial production index and annual average growth rate in %. Owing to seasonal factors related to the Lunar New Year, annual figures in January and February are reported together.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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