China: Industrial production softens in September
October 19, 2018
Industrial production expanded 5.8% annually in September, down from 6.1% in August and missing market expectations of 6.0%.
September’s print mainly reflected a slowdown in manufacturing output, while the electricity generation and mining sectors recorded steeper growth than in August.
On a month-on-month basis, industrial production increased 0.50% in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, down from August’s 0.53% expansion. Annual average growth in industrial production, meanwhile, edged down from 6.5% in August to 6.4% in September.
September’s weaker performance signals growth in industrial production remains sluggish, and is likely to deteriorate further in coming months due notably to spillovers from the ongoing trade dispute with the United States—which is poised to worsen as the tariff rate on Chinese imports is set to rise at the outset of 2019. On the other hand, recent monetary stimulus measures from the People’s Bank of China could help soften this downward trend.
China Industrial Production Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect industrial production to rise 6.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, the panel sees industrial production growth decelerating to 5.7%.
Author: Joffrey Simonet, Economist