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China Housing November 2021

China: Housing market is downbeat in November

House prices in 70 large- and medium-sized cities were down 0.3% month-on-month in November, according to a weighted average index calculated by Refinitiv from data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The print was down from October’s 0.2% decline.

House prices increased 3.0% annually in November, down from October’s 3.4% increase. Annual average growth in house prices dipped from 4.3% to 4.2%. Other housing market indicators were also soft: Year-to-date growth in commercial building sales and property investment eased notably in November. The decelerating housing market in recent months has been driven by the government’s measures aimed at boosting housing affordability and limiting speculation in the sector, as well as uncertainty generated by the precarious situation of many private property developers. Housing market momentum is set to remain soft ahead, notwithstanding the recent slight relaxation of the government’s property curbs.

On the outlook for the housing sector, analysts at Nomura said:

“After fine-tuning several property curbs, the severity of the current around of property curbs may have peaked. However, we still recommend caution, as Beijing reiterated ‘housing is for living, not for speculation’ at the annual economic work conference. We expect Beijing to maintain most of its major property curbs for now and believe the worst is yet to come for the property sector.”

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