Chile Economic Outlook
November 6, 2018Incoming data suggests that growth in the third quarter lost some steam on the heels of an impressive second quarter outturn, as export growth hit a near standstill in Q3. The deterioration in export growth marked the worst performance in over two years and came amid weaker global copper prices and increasing fragility in some of the country’s key trading partners. On the domestic front, inflationary pressures intensified in Q3; coupled with a worsening labor market—unemployment remained at a near seven-year high in July and August—this likely took a bite out of private consumption growth in the quarter. Meanwhile, on 28 October, President Sebastian Piñera announced plans to reform Chile’s highly privatized pension system, with the goal of increasing competition and boosting payouts to pensioners.
Chile Economic GrowthGDP is expected to grow at a healthy rate next year, in large part thanks to sturdy domestic demand. Prudent macroeconomic policy should keep inflation at bay, boding well for household consumption growth, while an overhaul of the tax system is expected to prop up investment activity growth. Downside risks to the outlook stem from the external environment, largely due to rising global protectionism and ongoing regional political and economic instability. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.
Chile Economy Data
5 years of Chile economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.77||-0.44 %||Nov 15|
|Exchange Rate||673.7||0.05 %||Nov 15|
|Stock Market||26,270||-0.67 %||Nov 15|
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Chile Economic News
November 8, 2018
Consumer prices rose 0.4% from the previous month in October, up slightly from September’s 0.3% increase.
November 7, 2018
The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index (IPEC, Índice de Percepción de la Economía) rose to 46.7 points in October, from 46.1 points in September, marking the first improvement after three consecutive months of deteriorating sentiment.
November 5, 2018
The business confidence index (IMCE, Indicador Mensual de Confianza Empresarial) published by ICARE and the Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez fell from 54.8 points in September to 53.6 points in October, although remained above the crucial 50-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism among businesses.
November 5, 2018
According to the IMACEC monthly economic activity index published by the Central Bank of Chile, economic activity rose 2.3% in annual terms in in September, down from the previous month’s 3.2% increase.
October 18, 2018
At its monetary policy meeting on 18 October, the board of the Central Bank of Chile (BCC) unanimously voted to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%, from 2.50%—where it had been since April 2017.