Chile Economic Forecast

Chile Economic Outlook

May 19, 2020

Incoming data suggests economic activity deteriorated in Q1 2020, as the measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 hammered the economy. The index of economic activity sank in March as business closures and social distancing hammered the non-mining economy, in turn pushing the unemployment rate to its highest point in almost a decade. In addition, plummeting global copper prices suppressed growth in the all-important mining sector and eroded merchandise exports in Q1. The recession is set to deepen in the second quarter, however, with record low consumer and business sentiment in April providing a hint of the magnitude of the crisis. Restrictions are set to continue curtailing consumption and investment in Q2, further stoking unemployment. Meanwhile, on 12 May the IMF looked poised to approve a preemptive two-year credit line of USD 23.8 billion to the Central Bank, to safeguard the economy against external shocks.

Chile Economic Growth

The economy is poised to shrink this year as Covid-19 takes its toll. Consumer and capital spending are set to fall amid prolonged social distancing, while stifled external demand should hammer exports. Moreover, uncertainty surrounding the upcoming constitutional process may restrain the pace of economic recovery following the end of the pandemic. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP falling 3.2% in 2020, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and then rebounding by 4.0% in 2021.

Chile Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)18.018.218.418.819.1
GDP per capita (USD)13,68013,78815,12515,911-  
GDP (USD bn)246250279298-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.31.71.34.0-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.12.63.04.0-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.3-1.3-2.74.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.43.14.64.0-1.7
Unemployment Rate6.36.56.66.97.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-2.7-2.7-1.7-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.321.023.525.6-  
Money (annual variation in %)10.610.14.79.48.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.42.72.32.63.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.43.82.22.42.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.502.502.751.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)9.6-2.815.140.2-7.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)708.6669.8615.4694.0752.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)654.6676.5648.9642.1703.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-1.6-2.1-3.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-4.0-6.0-9.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.44.97.44.74.2
Exports (USD billion)62.060.768.975.569.7
Imports (USD billion)58.655.961.570.865.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.3-2.113.49.6-7.6
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.6-4.710.115.1-7.5
International Reserves (USD)38.640.539.039.940.7
External Debt (% of GDP)65.465.864.761.8-  

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Chile Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.14-0.44 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate752.00.05 %Jan 01

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