Chile Economic Forecast

Chile Economic Outlook

February 13, 2018

The economy is kicking into a higher gear at the start of 2018. Economic activity in the closing months of 2017 exceeded expectations thanks to a stronger non-mining sector, while business confidence surged into positive territory in January for the first time in nearly four years. In addition, the construction sector finally returned to growth in November following 14 consecutive negative monthly readings. This bodes well for investment, as declining construction investment has been a consistent drag on GDP growth in recent quarters. Furthermore, prices for copper, a key export, rose further in January, which should boost the external sector. With the economic stars seemingly aligning in his favor, on 23 January president-elect Sebastian Piñera announced his cabinet, including several pro-business picks. Felipe Larraín Bascuñán will return as treasury minister—a post he occupied during Piñera’s first term—while economist and Econsult director José Ramón Valente will be economy minister.

Chile Economic Growth

Growth is expected to rise notably this year thanks to a turnaround in investment, ongoing expansive monetary policy and higher wages which should boost private consumption. Strong global economic activity should also boost Chile’s external sector. However, the economy will remain vulnerable to fluctuations in global copper prices. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth of 3.0% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2019.

Chile Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)17.417.617.818.018.2
GDP per capita (USD)15,19115,79614,69813,57413,586
GDP (USD bn)265279262244247
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.54.01.92.31.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.15.52.72.02.4
Investment (annual variation in %)11.62.2-4.8-0.8-0.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.20.2-1.20.2-0.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.15.22.81.81.7
Unemployment Rate6.56.06.36.36.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.6-0.6-1.6-2.2-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)12.012.714.917.421.3
Money (annual variation in %)16.010.98.79.88.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.53.04.64.42.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.01.84.44.43.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.1-0.8-5.6-9.20.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.004.503.003.503.50
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-8.18.4-22.89.6-2.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD)478.7525.5606.9708.6669.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)486.3495.6570.8654.6676.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.0-4.1-1.7-1.9-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.7-11.5-4.5-4.7-3.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.62.06.53.55.3
Exports (USD billion)78.176.875.162.260.6
Imports (USD billion)75.574.868.658.755.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.2-1.7-2.1-17.2-2.5
Imports (annual variation in %)6.8-0.9-8.2-14.4-5.8
International Reserves (USD)41.641.140.438.640.5
External Debt (% of GDP)45.548.357.164.566.3

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Chile Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.53-0.44 %Feb 14
Exchange Rate593.90.05 %Feb 14
Stock Market28,025-0.67 %Feb 14

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