Chile Economic Outlook
December 7, 2017The economy continues to rev up, with growth increasing markedly in Q3 on the back of greater mining exports and robust private consumption. The latter was likely aided by improved consumer confidence, which reached a multi-year high in October. However, fixed investment declined for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3, largely due to a weak construction sector. On the political front, Sebastián Piñera won the first round of presidential elections in mid-November. However, the margin of victory was smaller than expected, giving second-round opponent Alejandro Guillier—President Michelle Bachelet’s center-left successor—a realistic shot if he can rally enough support from other left-of-center voters. Simultaneous parliamentary elections led to a fractured congress. Piñera’s Chile Vamos coalition won the most seats, but fell significantly short of a majority, and the left-wing Frente Amplio party emerged as a serious political force, grabbing 20 seats. As a result, whoever wins the second round in December will have to reach a consensus with other groups to govern effectively, which will likely limit radical policy changes.
Chile Economic GrowthGrowth should pick up notably next year thanks to greater mining investment, expansive monetary policy and healthy private consumption growth. A stronger regional economy should also boost Chile’s external sector. However, the economy will remain vulnerable to fluctuations in global copper prices. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth rising to 2.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.
Chile Economy Data
5 years of Chile economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||4.63||-0.44 %||Dec 06|
|Exchange Rate||654.1||0.05 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||24,614||-0.67 %||Dec 06|
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Chile Economic News
December 1, 2017
Copper prices inched up in November, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
November 14, 2017
At its 14 November monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Chile (BCC) opted to leave the policy rate unchanged at 2.50% for the sixth consecutive month.
November 8, 2017
The Adimark GfK consumer confidence index (IPEC, Índice de Percepción de la Economía) increased from 45.9 points in September to 46.5 points in October, marking the eighth successive monthly rise and the index´s highest point in over three years.
November 8, 2017
Consumer prices rose 0.6% in October compared to the prior month, contrasting September’s 0.2% fall and significantly overshooting analysts’ expectations.
November 6, 2017
Less than two weeks before the first round of presidential elections, Sebastian Piñera enjoys a commanding lead in the polls.