Chile Economic Forecast

Chile Economic Outlook

October 11, 2021

Following robust growth in Q2, the economy appeared to gain momentum in Q3, spurred by sizable fiscal stimulus, pension drawdowns and the unwinding of restrictions amid a sharp fall in new Covid-19 cases. Economic activity recorded strong growth in July and August, while unemployment declined notably in the same period, which together with stronger consumer sentiment likely supported private spending. Moreover, business confidence recorded an over nine-year high in September, boding well for capital spending. However, mining activity was muted in the first two months of Q3 amid labor disputes. In politics, in late September the government presented the 2022 budget, which has a focus on mending public finances: Spending is expected to fall over 20% relative to 2021 levels as the health crisis recedes, with the overall and structural budget deficits forecast to narrow sharply.

Chile Economic Growth

The economy should recover rapidly this year, spurred by fiscal spending, further pension withdrawals, increased copper demand and the gradual removal of restrictions. However, growth will slow sharply in 2022 on a weaker base effect and a less expansive fiscal stance. New Covid-19 strains, this November’s general elections and the constituent process all cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 9.8% in 2021. In 2022, GDP is seen expanding 2.8%, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Chile Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)18.018.218.418.819.1
GDP per capita (USD)13,68213,79315,08615,91514,766
GDP (USD bn)246251278298282
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.31.71.23.91.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.12.73.43.71.1
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.3-1.3-3.14.84.2
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)3.13.84.34.41.6
Unemployment Rate6.36.56.67.47.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.1-2.7-2.8-1.7-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)17.321.023.625.627.9
Money (annual variation in %)10.610.14.79.48.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.42.72.32.63.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.43.82.22.42.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.502.502.751.75
Stock Market (annual variation in %)9.6-2.815.140.2-7.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)708.6669.8615.4694.0752.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)654.6676.5648.9642.1703.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-2.0-2.3-3.6-3.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-5.7-5.0-6.4-10.6-10.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.44.97.44.64.2
Exports (USD billion)62.060.768.875.269.9
Imports (USD billion)58.655.961.570.665.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.3-2.113.39.3-7.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.6-4.710.114.8-6.9
International Reserves (USD)38.640.539.039.940.7
External Debt (% of GDP)65.465.864.961.870.2

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Chile Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield3.14-0.44 %Dec 30
Exchange Rate752.00.05 %Jan 01

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