Bulgaria: GDP growth loses pace slightly in the second quarter
August 14, 2018
A preliminary release by the Statistical Institute showed that the economy grew 3.4% on an annual basis in the second quarter, marginally down from the revised 3.6% year-on-year expansion recorded in the first quarter (previously reported: +3.5% year-on-year). Growth in the second quarter was driven by strong expansions in final consumption and fixed investment. The external sector dragged on growth, however, as exports were outpaced by imports.
A rudimentary breakdown showed that total consumption growth picked up markedly to 4.7% in Q2 (Q1: +3.3% yoy), while fixed investment growth moderated to 4.4% from 7.0% in the previous quarter. Exports of goods and services also lost pace, increasing 2.7% in Q2 compared to 4.4% in Q1, most likely due to cooling demand from the EU. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services continued growing at the same pace of 4.6% as the previous quarter.
On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth inched down to 0.8% in the second quarter, down from a revised 0.9% in the first quarter (previously reported: +0.8% quarter-on-quarter).
More comprehensive data will be released on 7 September.
Bulgaria GDP Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants expect growth of 3.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2019, panelists see the economy growing 3.3%.
Author: Nihad Ahmed, Economist