Bulgaria GDP Q1 2021


Bulgaria: Decline in economic activity eases in Q1

May 18, 2021

According to a flash estimate, GDP slid 1.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, softening from the 3.8% contraction seen in the fourth quarter of last year.

A preliminary breakdown showed that the first quarter’s result largely came on the back of a pickup in total consumption, which grew 2.6% on an annual basis (Q4 2020: +0.9% yoy). Moreover, fixed investment bounced back in Q1, expanding 1.2% and contrasting Q4’s 7.4% contraction.

On the external front, exports of goods and services declined at a softer rate of 6.0% in Q1 (Q4: -11.2% yoy). In addition, imports rebounded, growing 0.6% (Q4: -0.8% yoy).

On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth accelerated to 2.5% in Q1, following the previous quarter's 2.2% increase.

More detailed data will be released on 8 June.

FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to expand 3.5% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2022.

Author:, Economist

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