Brazil Retail July 2020

Brazil

Brazil: Retail sales growth eases in July

September 10, 2020

Retail sales grew 5.2% month-on-month in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, a softer than June's 8.5% increase. That said, the result came in above market analyst’s expectations of a 1.2% rise.

Looking at the details of the release, sales under the categories of other articles for household and personal use; furniture and appliances; and textiles, clothing and footwear lost steam compared to the previous month. Moreover, supermarkets, food, drinks and tobacco sales were relatively stable in July.

On an annual basis, retail sales increased 5.5% in July, notably above June’s 0.5% expansion and marked the best result since March 2018.

Commenting on the outlook for retail sales, Alberto Ramos, economist at Goldman Sachs, reflected:

“Retail sales touched the bottom in April and have staged a solid recovery since then supported by large fiscal increase transfers and the gradual relaxation of social distancing protocols. However, a still very complex domestic covid viral picture and the likely reduction of fiscal stimulus before the end of the year could soften/weaken the pace of the recovery.”

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists expect retail sales to decline 6.8% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel sees retail sales growing 5.4%.


Author:, Economist

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Brazil Retail July 20 20

Note: Month-on-month changes of seasonally-adjusted retail sales and annual average growth rate in %.
Source: Brazilian Institute of Statistics and Geography (IBGE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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