Argentina: Economic activity plunges in April
June 26, 2018
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 0.9% in annual terms in April, contrasting the upwardly revised 2.0% expansion registered in March (previously reported: +1.4% year-on-year). April’s print marked the worst performance since February 2017 and ended thirteen months of consecutive economic expansion.
The contraction was primarily driven by a 30.8% drop in agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry activity in April (March: -3.8% year-on-year), which was struck hard by the effects of the drought on crop yields. Meanwhile, growth in the manufacturing industry accelerated to 3.1% in April (March: +0.6% yoy) and construction activity picked up 10.2% (March: +5.0% yoy). Moreover, activity in the financial intermediation sector gained momentum at 9.4% growth in April (March: +3.5% yoy).
A seasonally-adjusted month-on-month comparison shows that economic activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month, falling 2.7% in April, which was the largest drop in six years (March: -0.2% month-on-month).
Lastly, average economic activity inched down to 3.5% in April from 3.6% in March.
Argentina GDP Forecast
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect economic growth of 1.7% in 2018, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists see the economy expanding 2.5%.
Author: Lindsey Ice, Economist