Argentina Economic Activity July 2019

Argentina

Argentina: Economic activity picks up slightly in July

September 26, 2019

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) increased 0.6% year-on-year in July, after logging a revised 0.4% uptick in June (previously reported: 0.0% year-on-year).

July’s moderate improvement was largely driven by softer contractions in the manufacturing, construction, internal trade and utilities industries, as well as by stronger growth in the mining and quarrying sector. On the flip side, growth in agricultural production more than halved, while output in the transport and communication sector swung from a timid expansion to a slight contraction.

A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity rebounded 1.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms in July, contrasting June’s 0.4% dip. Meanwhile, the annual average variation in economic activity improved from a 3.8% contraction in June to a 3.5% fall in July.

Argentina’s outlook has deteriorated substantially since our last edition of LatinFocus due to August’s financial crisis. LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts significantly downwardly revised their forecasts and now see the economy contracting 2.8% in 2019, which is down 1.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 1.4% in 2020, which is down 3.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Argentina Economic Activity July 2019

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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