Argentina Economic Activity May 2019

Argentina

Argentina: Economic activity expands for the first time in over a year, dazzling markets

July 25, 2019

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) increased 2.6% in annual terms in May, contrasting the 1.3% fall recorded in April. The reading represents the best result since February 2018 and surprised markets sharply on the upside.

May’s result saw broad-based improvements, and came largely on the back of a stronger jump in output in the agriculture, hunting and forestry sector, which surged by almost 50%. Moreover, growth in the mining and quarrying sector picked-up, while most of the remaining sectors recorded less severe contractions compared with the previous month. On the other hand, the financial intermediation sector contracted at a sharper pace.

A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity rose 0.2% in seasonally-adjusted terms in May, following April’s 0.9% jump. Meanwhile, the annual average variation in economic activity improved from a 4.9% contraction in April to a 4.3% fall in May.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 1.3% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before expanding 2.2% in 2020.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Argentina Economic Activity May 2019

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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