Argentina: Economic activity continues to contract markedly in December
February 28, 2019
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 7.0% in annual terms in December, a somewhat softer drop than the 7.5% plunge recorded in November. The reading marked the ninth consecutive month of decline in year-on-year terms, and brings the cumulative change in economic activity for 2018 as a whole to a 2.6% contraction.
December’s fall came on the back of a broad-based decline across key the economic sectors. The most significant contractions were again recorded in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail sales, and construction sectors. Moreover, the performances of the manufacturing and construction sectors were more negative than seen in the previous month. On the other hand, the agricultural sector continued to expand, and did it so a stronger pace than in November.
A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity increased 0.7% in seasonally-adjusted terms in December, rebounding from November’s revised 2.0% contraction (previously reported: -2.3% month-on-month).
Argentina GDP Forecast
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.5% in 2019, down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding to 2.7% growth in 2020.