Argentina: Contraction in economic activity sharpens notably in September
November 26, 2018
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) contracted 5.8% in annual terms in September, a much sharper drop than the revised 1.9% fall recorded in August (previously reported: -1.6% year-on-year). The reading marked the sixth consecutive month of decline in year-on-year terms.
September’s contraction came mainly on the back of significant falls in the manufacturing, wholesale and retail sale as well as transport and communication sectors. Moreover, the performance of the aforementioned sectors and of the construction sector were more negative than seen in the previous month. On the other hand, growth in the agricultural sector accelerated somewhat, while the fishing sector continued to expand, albeit at a much softer pace than in August.
A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity contracted 1.9% in seasonally-adjusted terms in September, contrasting August’s revised 0.7% increase (previously reported: +1.3% month-on-month). The reading followed two consecutive month-on-month rises and marked the worst print in five months.
Finally, average growth in economic activity came in flat in September following a 0.8% increase in August.
Argentina GDP Forecast
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see the economy contracting 0.5% in 2019, down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding to 2.7% growth in 2020.