Argentina Economic Activity January 2020

Argentina

Argentina: Contraction in economic activity sharpens at 2020 outset

March 31, 2020

The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE, Estimador Mensual de Actividad Económica) fell 1.8% year-on-year in January, after logging a 0.2% dip in December.

In terms of productive sectors, January’s more pronounced fall was largely driven by sharper contractions in the construction and the agricultural sectors; a massive downturn in the fishing sector; the manufacturing sector swinging from a timid expansion to contraction; and softer growth in the internal trade sector.

A month-on-month comparison showed that economic activity inched down 0.1% in seasonally-adjusted terms in January, contrasting December’s 0.4% uptick. Meanwhile, the average annual variation in economic activity improved from a 2.2% contraction in December to a 1.9% fall in the first month of this year.

LatinFocus Consensus sees the economy contracting 1.6% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before rebounding by 1.6% in 2021.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Argentina Economic Activity January 20 20

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average growth rate of monthly economic activity in %.
Source: Argentina National Statistical Institute (INDEC) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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