Angola Commodities October 2019

Angola: Cabinda crude oil prices slump in October; Angolan production dives to near 13-year low in September

The average price of Angola’s Cabinda crude fell from USD 64.6 per barrel (pb) in September to USD 60.7 pb in October, the second lowest since January. October’s price was 4.4% below the average price observed in the previous month and 24.7% lower in year-on-year terms.

In October, global oil prices were hurt by the uncertain global economic outlook and the quick recovery of oil production in Saudi Arabia following a drone attack on oil refineries in mid-September, which temporarily cut the country’s oil production by over one half. Soft manufacturing activity data in China and a large build-up in U.S. inventories exerted further downward pressure on oil prices in October, although expectations of OPEC+ extending or even deepening oil production cuts supported the prices somewhat.

Oil production in Angola fell to 1.38 million barrels per day in (mbpd) in September from 1.43 mbpd in August, marking the lowest output since October 2006. Meanwhile, according to the latest OPEC report published on 10 October, crude oil production among OPEC countries edged down to 28.49 mbpd in September from 29.81 mbpd in August.

Looking forward, the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain. The ongoing U.S.-China trade war and a slowing global economy remain major headwinds, while prices could get support from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, sustained OPEC+ production cuts and slower-than-projected growth in U.S. oil shale output.

Looking forward, the outlook for oil prices remains uncertain. Oil price developments will largely depend on the strength of the global economy, a potential extension of the OPEC+ oil cut deal and supply disruptions in key producers due to widespread geopolitical risks.

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