Angola: Angolan oil production inches up in March
Latest reading: Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 99.41 per barrel in March, up 43.2% from February. On 31 March, the commodity traded at USD 118.35 per barrel, up 63.1% from 27 February. Prices skyrocketed at the fastest clip since August 1990 due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war.
Turning to production, Angolan oil output ticked up to 1.02 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March from February’s 1.01 mbpd; production undershot both the 1.11 mbpd expected by national oil firm ANPG and the 2016–2025 average of 1.31 mbpd.
Outlook: Our Consensus is for crude production in Angola to rise in 2026 from 2025, and then gradually increase further through 2029. In the short term, the nation’s second oil refinery—a joint venture between Gemcorp Holdings and Sonangol—began operations in May in Cabinda, boosting production ahead. Moreover, extensive oil sector reforms have unlocked substantial investments from international oil majors: New production from TotalEnergies and the start-up of the Agogo IWH project by Azule Energy—a joint venture between BP and Eni—will support output ahead.
Still, downside risks and challenges remain, including aging oil fields and high costs and frequent maintenance at major wells that will continue to constrain production. Potential delays to projects pose a key downside risk.