Global commodity prices rebound mildly in July despite muted global growth prospects
Global commodity prices rose 1.5% on a monthly basis in July, rebounding from a sharp 6.5% month-on-month slump in June which had marked the worst performance since December 2018.
July’s increase in global commodity prices was chiefly driven by a rebound in energy prices amid the extension of OPEC+ oil production cuts and declining oil inventories in the U.S. Similarly, prices for base metals recovered somewhat in July, thanks to tight supply and despite soft demand dynamics. Furthermore, robust safe-haven demand supported higher prices for precious metals. In contrast, prices for agricultural products fell in the same month, capping the overall gains somewhat.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists marginally improved their price projections for commodities this month. Our panelists expect global commodity prices to remain broadly unchanged in Q4 2019 compared to the same period in 2018, contrasting June’s projection of a 0.2% drop. The panel continues to project a weakening in base metal and energy prices which will offset solid gains in prices for precious metals and agriculture. FocusEconomics panelists expect global commodity prices to fall 1.7% in annual terms from Q4 2019 to Q4 2020.
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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities