Economic Growth in Serbia
Serbia's economy recorded an average growth rate of 2.9% in the decade to 2024, compared to the 2.8% average for South-Eastern Europe. In 2024, real GDP growth was 3.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Serbia GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Serbia from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Serbia GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -1.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 3.9 |
GDP (USD bn) | 55.9 | 66.1 | 66.8 | 81.3 | 89.0 |
GDP (EUR bn) | 49.0 | 55.9 | 63.5 | 75.2 | 82.3 |
GDP (RSD bn) | 5,764 | 6,576 | 7,459 | 8,818 | 9,639 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.7 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 18.2 | 9.3 |
GDP growth ticks up in the second quarter
Economic momentum strengthens in Q2: GDP grew 2.1% in Q2 on an annual basis, above the flash estimate of 2.0% and Q1’s 1.9% print. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP rebounded, growing 1.1% in Q2 and contrasting the previous quarter's 0.6% decrease.
Spending drives the improvement: Private consumption growth accelerated to 3.0% year on year in Q2, up from a 1.6% expansion in Q1, thanks to solid gains in real wages and a tighter labor market. Moreover, government spending accelerated to a 3.7% expansion in Q2 (Q1: +0.5% yoy). That said, fixed investment contracted 4.0% in Q2, marking the worst result since Q2 2020 (Q1: -0.8% yoy). This downturn reflects a decline in construction activity, after sizeable construction projects under the National Investment Plan in 2023 and H1 2024 came to an end. On the external side, exports of goods and services growth fell to 4.6% in Q2, marking the worst result since Q1 2024 (Q1: +8.6% yoy). Lastly, imports of goods and services growth waned to 9.8% in Q2 (Q1: +11.3% yoy).
GDP outlook: Our panelists expect the economy to gain further traction in H2 as strong real wage gains aid household consumption. Still, over 2025 as a whole, GDP growth is forecast to moderate from 2024 as both domestic demand and exports cool.
Panelist insight: Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, said: “Private consumption should continue to support growth, due to double-digit nominal wage growth and strong consumption loan growth. Regarding investments, the question is to what extent can government infrastructure projects, related to the Expo 2027, replace and soften the blow from private investments decline and weaker FDI flows. Due to relatively solid industry performance in recent months, we expect another increase in inventories which could continue to have a strong positive effect on headline growth. On the external side, heightened global uncertainty continues to cast a shadow over external demand and general consumer and business sentiment” Analysts at the EIU commented: “GDP growth this year is likely to be slower than previously expected, at 2.8%, but will then accelerate to an average of around 4% in 2026-29 as the economy continues to catch up from its relatively low starting point and gets a further boost from the specialised Expo taking place in Belgrade in 2027.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Serbian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Serbian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Serbian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Serbian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
Latest Global GDP News
-
United Kingdom: Economy stagnates in July GDP reading: GDP flatlined on a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis in July, following a 0.4% increase in the prior month... -
Ghana: Economic growth unchanged in Q2 GDP growth stable: GDP growth was unchanged year on year in the second quarter, matching Q1’s upwardly revised 6.3% figure... -
South Africa: Economic growth picks up in the second quarter GDP growth improves, as expected: As anticipated by our Consensus, the economy strengthened at a faster clip in the second... -
Brazil: Economic growth taps on the brakes in Q2 Near 20-year high interest rates take a toll on GDP growth: As projected by our Consensus, sequential GDP growth lost... -
Hungary: GDP ticks up in the second quarter Economy remains subdued: According to a second release, annual GDP growth edged up to 0.1% in the second quarter, above... -
Lithuania: Economic growth remains resilient in Q2 Growth slows but remains among Euro area’s fastest: The economy grew 3.1% year on year in the second quarter, down... -
Canada: Economy records sharpest contraction since Q2 2020 in Q2 GDP reading: GDP contracted 1.6% in seasonally adjusted annualized rate terms (SAAR) in the second quarter, contrasting the 2.0% expansion...