Portugal GDP

Economy recovers in Q2 2026

GDP growth returns in Q2 following winter storms: According to a flash estimate, Portugal's GDP increased 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q2, following a flat reading in the prior quarter. The reading was double the euro area average and reflected a recovery from a series of storms that battered the country in winter. In seasonally adjusted year-on-year terms, GDP grew 2.5% in Q2, following a 2.3% expansion in the prior quarter.

Net trade rebounds and private consumption accelerates: A full breakdown of the GDP figures will not be published until the second release on 31 August. However, the statistical office noted that net trade rebounded, as imports slowed down more significantly than exports. Meanwhile, domestic demand contributed less to GDP growth, with a decrease in investment and an acceleration in private consumption.

GDP growth to moderate in Q3: In Q3, sequential GDP growth should moderate with the post-storm recovery largely complete and the Iran energy shock continuing to keep global fuel prices elevated and trade flows disrupted. Still, July data suggests consumers started Q3 on a positive note. In July, consumer sentiment hit its highest level since February, and inflation remained stable. Meanwhile, our panelists have upped their GDP growth forecasts for the full year following Q2’s release, with economic growth now seen broadly matching 2025’s pace. Legislative gridlock due to a minority government will remain a headwind to growth.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Portuguese GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 29 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Portuguese GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Portuguese GDP projections.

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