Domestic Demand in Poland
Poland - Domestic Demand
Growth picks up in Q4
Poland’s economy gained steam in the fourth quarter amid a pick-up in exports and private consumption. According to more complete data released by the Central Statistical Office of Poland on 28 February, GDP expanded 2.7% in Q4 over the same period of 2015. The result was above Q3’s 2.5% increase, which had marked the worst result since Q3 2013. The figure matched the preliminary estimate.
Taking a look at the details on the domestic side of the economy, private consumption picked up to a multi-year high, growing 4.2%. A tightening labor market and fiscal stimulus measures have acted as tailwinds to household spending. Meanwhile, the contraction in fixed investment moderated slightly from Q3’s 7.7% plunge, but was still sharp at 5.8%. Reduced EU development funds have caused a sharp slowdown in public investment this year, while heightened uncertainty is likely discouraging firms from spending. Meanwhile, government spending fell from Q3’s 4.9% increase to a 2.7% expansion.
The external sector added to GDP growth in Q4 as exports picked up pace. Exports grew 8.6% aided by recovering external demand. Import growth also gained steam, coming in at 8.5% after growing 7.8% in Q3.
The consumption boom seen in Q4 is likely to persist thanks to fiscal easing measures and a tight labor market. This, combined with a rebound in investment, should allow the economy to gain steam this year.
After a 2.8% expansion in 2016, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect that the economy will grow 3.1% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2018, panelists foresee the economy growing 3.3%.
Poland - Domestic Demand Data
|Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)||-0.2||4.2||4.2||-0.5||-0.6|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||3.47||0.99 %||Apr 06|
|Exchange Rate||3.98||0.19 %||Apr 06|
|Stock Market||59,406||0.06 %||Apr 06|
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April 20, 2017
In March, industrial production expanded 11.1% over the same month last year, which was well above the 1.2% increase recorded in February and the fastest expansion since December 2010.
April 20, 2017
In March, retail sales rose 9.7% over the same month of 2016, which was an acceleration from February’s 7.3% expansion.
April 11, 2017
Consumer prices dropped 0.1% in March over the prior month, contrasting February’s 0.3% increase and matching the preliminary estimate released on 31 March.
April 5, 2017
As anticipated by market analysts, the National Bank of Poland (NBP) decided to keep the reference rate at the record low of 1.50% at its 4–5 April monetary policy meeting.
April 3, 2017
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), decreased from 54.2 points in February to 53.5 points in March, according to IHS Markit.