Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

November 16, 2021

The economy likely slipped back into contraction in Q3, as available data points towards deteriorating activity throughout the period. In July–September, private consumption contracted at the sharpest rate since the height of the pandemic in Q2 2020, while private investment growth slowed notably. Turning to Q4, conditions appear to have improved somewhat, with the manufacturing PMI returning to expansionary territory in October and consumer and business sentiment both rising in the same month. Meanwhile, despite daily Covid-19 cases remaining elevated, authorities ended quarantine measures for fully vaccinated visitors arriving from a number of major economies from 1 November. Concurrently, night-time curfew measures were also lifted in multiple provinces, including Bangkok, with both initiatives likely to support activity in the quarter alongside a steady improvement in vaccination rates.

Thailand Economic Growth

Economic growth is projected to accelerate in 2022 from this year’s heavily-downgraded estimated level, as consumer spending rises on a pickup in demand and external sector growth remains robust. However, concerns regarding how quickly the key tourism industry will recover mean that growth is still set to lag behind the majority of regional heavyweights in the coming year. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 4.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projections, before growing 4.5% in 2023.

Thailand Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)67.267.567.767.867.9
GDP per capita (USD)5,9546,1326,7457,4548,021
GDP (USD bn)400414456505545
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.13.44.14.22.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.62.93.14.64.5
Investment (annual variation in %)4.42.91.83.82.1
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)0.01.41.83.7-3.6
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)0.01.06.310.83.1
Unemployment Rate0.70.81.00.91.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.6-3.0-2.4-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.741.041.141.841.2
Money (annual variation in %)5.74.89.42.85.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.91.10.80.40.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.90.20.71.10.7
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.1-1.20.70.4-1.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.751.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)24.1-17.721.215.8-10.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)36.0435.7832.6432.4030.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)34.2135.2433.9032.2831.01
Current Account (% of GDP)6.910.59.65.67.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)27.843.444.028.537.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)26.135.832.622.426.6
Exports (USD billion)213213234251243
Imports (USD billion)187178201229216
Exports (annual variation in %)-5.90.19.57.5-3.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.6-5.113.213.7-5.4
International Reserves (USD)157172203206224
External Debt (% of GDP)32.731.934.032.131.6

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Thailand Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate30.110.17 %Dec 30

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