Thailand Economic Outlook
November 16, 2021The economy likely slipped back into contraction in Q3, as available data points towards deteriorating activity throughout the period. In July–September, private consumption contracted at the sharpest rate since the height of the pandemic in Q2 2020, while private investment growth slowed notably. Turning to Q4, conditions appear to have improved somewhat, with the manufacturing PMI returning to expansionary territory in October and consumer and business sentiment both rising in the same month. Meanwhile, despite daily Covid-19 cases remaining elevated, authorities ended quarantine measures for fully vaccinated visitors arriving from a number of major economies from 1 November. Concurrently, night-time curfew measures were also lifted in multiple provinces, including Bangkok, with both initiatives likely to support activity in the quarter alongside a steady improvement in vaccination rates.
Thailand Economic GrowthEconomic growth is projected to accelerate in 2022 from this year’s heavily-downgraded estimated level, as consumer spending rises on a pickup in demand and external sector growth remains robust. However, concerns regarding how quickly the key tourism industry will recover mean that growth is still set to lag behind the majority of regional heavyweights in the coming year. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 4.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projections, before growing 4.5% in 2023.
Thailand Economy Data
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Thailand Economic News
November 10, 2021
At its 10 November meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) held the policy rate at the record low of 0.50% for the 12th consecutive meeting.
November 5, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.74% in October over the previous month, coming in below the 1.59% increase logged in September.
October 28, 2021
Manufacturing output increased 6.6% in month-on-month seasonally-adjusted terms in September, which contrasted August's 4.4% decrease.
October 25, 2021
Merchandise exports grew 17.1% on an annual basis in September, accelerating from August’s 8.9% year-on-year rise and reversing the recent downward trend in exports growth.
October 5, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.59% in September over the previous month, swinging from August's 0.18% fall.