Thailand Economic Forecast

Thailand Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

Economic momentum likely cooled somewhat in the first quarter of this year, weighed down by higher Covid-19 cases after a healthy GDP rebound in Q4 2021. Private spending and investment fell in month-on-month terms in January and February. In the same period, manufacturing activity weakened compared to Q4 2021. Meanwhile, surging inflation and souring consumer sentiment in the quarter likely took a toll on household spending. In contrast, business sentiment improved in March following subdued readings in the previous two months, and PMI readings signaled continued expansions throughout Q1. Moving to this quarter, authorities relaxed testing rules for visitors in early April, which should support the important tourism sector ahead. Also in early April, authorities furthered price control measures and lessened social security contributions, aiming to support consumers.

Thailand Economic Growth

GDP growth should strengthen this year from 2021’s relatively subdued performance. Stronger household spending growth as well as a solid external sector, amid robust manufacturing activity and recovering tourism, will support the economy. That said, reduced fiscal support, higher inflation and China’s Covid-19 policies pose downside risks to the outlook. The FocusEconomics panel sees the economy expanding 3.5% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projections, before growing 4.4% in 2023.

Thailand Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)67.267.567.767.867.9
GDP per capita (USD)5,9546,1326,7457,4548,021
GDP (USD bn)400414456505545
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Manufacturing (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate0.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-2.6-3.0-2.4-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.741.041.141.841.2
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-4.1-
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.501.501.501.751.25
Stock Market (annual variation in %)24.1-17.721.215.8-10.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD)36.0435.7832.6432.4030.11
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)34.2135.2433.9032.2831.01
Current Account (% of GDP)6.910.
Current Account Balance (USD bn)27.843.444.028.537.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)26.135.832.622.426.6
Exports (USD billion)213213234251243
Imports (USD billion)187178201229216
Exports (annual variation in %)-
Imports (annual variation in %)-10.6-
International Reserves (USD)157172203206224
External Debt (% of GDP)32.731.934.032.131.6

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Thailand Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate30.110.17 %Dec 30

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