Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

April 11, 2017

Although policy uncertainty in the U.S. caused consumer and investment sentiment to deteriorate markedly at the beginning of this year, Mexico’s economic activity has shown more resilience than initially expected. In January, the monthly proxy GDP (IGAE) accelerated to a 3.0% expansion, buoyed by solid growth in agriculture and services. In addition, the weakness of the peso, along with the ongoing improvement in global demand, has had a welcome effect on Mexico’s external sector, boosting merchandise exports in the first two months of the year. In other positive news, U.S. trade rhetoric toward Mexico has substantially moderated in the past weeks, alleviating concerns of a potential imposition of trade tariffs by the U.S. government on Mexican exports. Moreover, a record transfer of excess funds from the Central Bank to the government bodes well for strengthening public finances and the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts going forward.

Mexico Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)117118120121-  
GDP per capita (USD)10,14810,66810,8299,493-  
GDP (USD bn)1,1881,2631,2961,149-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.01.42.32.6-  
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)3.91.42.02.1-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.92.11.82.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)4.8-1.63.04.2-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)2.9-0.52.71.0-  
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)4.11.12.75.1-  
Unemployment Rate4.44.33.84.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-2.3-3.2-3.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.238.341.946.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)14.59.112.45.7-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.64.04.12.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.84.02.7-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.21.30.91.3-  
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.503.503.003.25-  
Stock Market (annual variation in %)17.9-2.21.0-0.4-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12.8713.0414.7517.18-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)13.1612.7613.3115.88-  
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.4-2.5-2.0-2.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-17.0-31.0-26.2-33.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.0-1.2-3.1-14.6-  
Exports (USD billion)371380397381-  
Imports (USD billion)371381400395-  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.12.54.4-4.1-  
Imports (annual variation in %)5.72.84.9-1.2-  
International Reserves (USD)164177193177-  
External Debt (% of GDP)19.020.522.025.9-  

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.070.71 %Apr 06
Exchange Rate18.74-0.42 %Apr 06
Stock Market49,012-0.40 %Apr 06

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Mexico Economic Growth

April 11, 2017

This month, the GDP growth Consensus Forecast for 2017 was revised up by 0.1 percentage points compared to last month, reflecting the positive developments observed in Q1. Nonetheless, the outlook continues to be threatened by any potential swift change in U.S. policy. Analysts expect GDP to expand 1.6% in 2017 and to accelerate to a 2.1% expansion in 2018.

Mexico Economic News

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