Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

January 19, 2016

GDP firmed up in Q3 2015 and was supported by strong momentum in domestic demand. Mexico’s economy increased 2.6% year-on-year (Q2: +2.4% year-on-year) as it benefited from still healthy dynamics in private consumption and strong growth in exports of goods and services. More recent data suggest that private consumption continued to fuel economic growth in Q4 2015, buoyed by ongoing gains in employment and remittances in November and increased consumer confidence in December. On 8 January, Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, leader of the Sinaloa Cartel and the world's most wanted criminal, was recaptured in an operation led by the Mexican army. This is the third time that Guzmán has been apprehended, which highlights both the degree of corruption in Mexico’s security agencies as well as the high political cost for the government. It remains to be seen if the government will extradite Guzmán to the U.S.

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.090.33 %Feb 08
Exchange Rate18.671.24 %Feb 08
Stock Market42,775-1.05 %Feb 08

Mexico Economic Growth

January 19, 2016

The economy is expected to have recorded a modest 2.5% expansion in 2015, as a fall in oil production and global headwinds dragged on economic growth. Analysts surveyed this month expect Mexico’s economy to accelerate and increase 2.7% in 2016. Growth will benefit from a recovery in the U.S., the implementation of structural reforms and strong domestic demand. Nevertheless, downside risks in the form of falling oil prices and fiscal tightening prevail, which prompted analysts to cut the economic outlook by 0.1 percentage points this month. For 2017, LatinFocus panelists expect the economy to accelerate further and expand 3.2%.

Mexico Economic News

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