Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

July 11, 2017

The economy seems to have closed H1 on a much better note than had been expected at the outset of the year. Following a weak start to Q2, the external sector regained its momentum in May as exports leaped thanks to a strong manufacturing sector, while leading PMI data suggest that operating conditions among manufacturers improved further in June. In the domestic economy, private consumption growth continued to defy market expectations of a soft landing. April’s seasonally-adjusted figure was shy of a five-year high as a robust labor market and soaring remittances continued to shore up household spending.

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Mexico Facts

Bond Yield6.800.0 %Jul 18
Exchange Rate17.48-0.61 %Jul 18
Stock Market51,100-0.45 %Jul 18

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Mexico Economic Growth

July 11, 2017

The economy’s momentum will peter out toward year-end as private consumption takes a back seat and fixed investment remains depressed as a result of a plunge in public capital expenditure. While improved dynamics in the manufacturing sector will lift growth to an extent, the risk that the renegotiation of NAFTA will be disorderly—the talks are slated to begin on 13 August at the earliest—still tilts the balance of risks to the downside. Our panel of economists expects GDP to grow 2.0% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2018.

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