Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

January 17, 2017

Mexico is by far the most exposed economy in Latin America to risks from the U.S., given the strongly integrated trade and manufacturing cycle links to its northern neighbor. At the same time, December’s fall in the manufacturing PMIs give little hope of stronger GDP growth in Q4, following a slowdown in Q3. Adding to the bad news for the manufacturing sector, carmakers are feeling the pressure coming from Trump’s threats to impose tariffs on vehicles assembled in Mexico and exported to the U.S. On 3 January, Ford Motor Company bowed to the pressure and announced that it had cancelled plans for a new plant in the country. It remains to be seen if future U.S. investment into Mexico’s industrial sector, particularly in the car industry, will be under threat of cancellation or reduction this year.

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.56-1.02 %Jan 23
Exchange Rate21.39-0.93 %Jan 23
Stock Market47,1161.69 %Jan 23

Mexico Economic Growth

January 17, 2017

With fears that Donald Trump’s protectionist agenda will wreak havoc on Mexico’s economy, the outlook is becoming gloomier. Analysts expect the economy to decelerate to 1.8% growth in 2017, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection, after an estimated 2.1% growth in 2016. For 2018, GDP is forecast to increase 2.3%.

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