Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

July 14, 2015

Recent data show that Mexico’s first quarter economic growth was supported by a pick-up in both private consumption and government spending. Private consumption registered the second-fastest increase so far during the administration of Enrique Peña Nieto. Government spending was also up, possibly reflecting the run-up to the June mid-term elections. On the external side, the external sector’s net contribution was positive due to strong growth in exports. The sharp depreciation of the peso that began in the second half of 2014 could help explain the increase in exports volumes. On a negative note, just under 18 months since he was recaptured after being on the run for 13 years, the head of the Sinaloa cartel, Joaquín Guzmán, broke out of jail again on the night of 12 July. The event is a major blow to the Peña Nieto administration, which had taken pride in capturing one of Mexico’s most-wanted criminals.

Mexico Economic Data

20102011201220132014
Population (million)114116117118120
GDP per capita (USD)9,20110,10710,14810,67010,698
GDP (USD bn)1,0521,1691,1881,2631,281
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.14.04.01.42.1
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)5.14.03.91.51.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.74.84.92.22.0
Investment (annual variation in %)1.37.84.8-1.62.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.63.42.9-0.61.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-0.11.74.11.12.7
Unemployment Rate4.94.54.44.33.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-2.4-2.6-2.3-3.2
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.534.935.238.342.4
Money (annual variation in %)12.816.114.59.112.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.43.83.64.04.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.23.44.13.84.0
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)4.47.81.21.30.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.504.503.503.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)20.0-3.817.9-2.21.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12.3613.9512.8713.0414.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)12.6312.4413.1612.7613.31
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.5-1.1-1.3-2.3-2.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.9-13.3-15.9-29.7-26.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-1.40.0-1.2-2.4
Exports (USD billion)298349371380398
Imports (USD billion)301351371381400
Exports (annual variation in %)29.917.16.12.54.6
Imports (annual variation in %)28.616.45.72.84.9
International Reserves (USD)114143164177193
External Debt (% of GDP)18.417.918.820.221.9

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.08-0.16 %Jul 29
Exchange Rate16.290.10 %Jul 29
Stock Market44,4710.56 %Jul 29

Mexico Economic Growth

July 14, 2015

Mexico’s growth prospects continue to moderate. Economic growth will be supported by both a recovery in the United States and an increase in investments related to the structural reforms. However, the cut in government spending is likely to drag on economic growth. LatinFocus panelists lowered Mexico’s 2015 GDP growth forecasts by 0.1 percentage points over the previous month and now see the economy growing 2.6%. Next year, forecasters see the economy picking up momentum and expanding 3.2%.

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