Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

May 16, 2017

The economy dispelled fears of abruptly running aground at the outset of the year as it accelerated to grow 2.7% in Q1, with households showing outstanding resilience against a backdrop of soaring inflation and abrupt shifts in the U.S. trade agenda. Consumer confidence has been steadily trending higher, aided by a robust labor market and a surge in remittances. In line with upbeat consumer data, growth in the first quarter was led by services, though the industrial sector nearly stagnated, as reflected in downbeat PMI readings. This was due to weak dynamics in industrial output, which continues to suffer from lagging peso-linked cost-push inflation and the subsequent tightening in margins. In the fiscal arena, things are also looking up. The government’s prudent stance means it should achieve this year’s primary fiscal target, while state-owned Pemex’s return to profit in Q1 has reduced the risk of a financial shock.

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Mexico Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield7.29-0.08 %May 24
Exchange Rate18.44-1.02 %May 24
Stock Market49,4940.92 %May 24

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Mexico Economic Growth

May 16, 2017

In light of resilient dynamics in the economy and easing fiscal concerns, economists have revised their projections up by 0.2 percentage points compared to last month’s forecast. They now expect GDP to expand 1.8% in 2017. However, the risk of a disorderly negotiation of NAFTA and rising domestic political noise are threats to the outlook of the economy. Analysts expect the economy to expand 2.1% in 2018.

Mexico Economic News

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