Mexico Economic Forecast

Mexico Economic Outlook

September 12, 2017

The economic panorama remains upbeat, with better-than-anticipated growth continuing into the start of the third quarter, even amid myriad challenges, both domestic and external. The manufacturing PMI logged its second-best reading in three years in August, and consumer sentiment trended higher in the same month. However, household spending has started to feel the pinch of multi-year-high inflation and weakening credit growth, with retail sales nearly running aground at the close of the second quarter. Meanwhile, the second round of NAFTA renegotiation talks came to a close in early September. The first two rounds have shown little in terms of progress, and talks are expected to last at least through the end of this year. Nonetheless, time is of the essence as election cycles draw near in both the U.S. and Mexico, which suggests that changes to NAFTA will be only minor and therefore easy to agree on.

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Mexico Facts

Bond Yield6.780.30 %Sep 18
Exchange Rate17.760.58 %Sep 18
Stock Market50,2580.67 %Sep 18

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Mexico Economic Growth

September 12, 2017

Economic activity growth is expected to be weaker in the second half of the year due to dwindling purchasing power growth among consumers and still-subdued public capital expenditure. In addition, analysts remain wary of the short- and long-term effects an adverse renegotiation of NAFTA would have on the country’s outlook. Our panel expects GDP to grow 2.1% this year, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.2% in 2018.

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