Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

December 16, 2021

Available data suggests that momentum has remained fairly stable in the fourth quarter. On average, Cabinda oil production was virtually unchanged in October–November compared to the third quarter. Prices for the black gold inched down in November, but remained above the levels seen in Q3 and markedly above last year’s price. This should support government finances. Less positively, mounting inflation in the fourth quarter so far, coupled with an increase in the unemployment rate in the third quarter, will weigh on household spending. Furthermore, the government recently expanded international travel restrictions for various African countries due to the emergence of the Omicron variant. These restrictions will likely drag on Angola’s services and tourism sectors.

Angola Economic Growth

The economy should return to growth next year as the oil sector is set to rebound from a multi-year recession. Within the non-oil sector, activity should receive a boost from progress on the vaccination front and easing price pressures, as well as the halving of the VAT. However, the outlook is clouded by social unrest and a large public debt burden. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 2.6% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is seen growing 3.0%.

Angola Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)26.727.528.429.330.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,3543,6554,3043,6522,809
GDP (USD bn)11610112210784.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.9-2.6-0.1-2.0-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.9-19.53.0-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-4.5-6.32.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.175.769.389.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.814.44.120.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)14.341.926.318.217.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.332.431.720.317.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0016.0018.0016.5015.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)135.2165.8165.8307.7479.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)120.1163.5165.8252.9363.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-3.1-0.56.96.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.3-3.1-0.67.45.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.514.520.225.020.6
Exports (USD billion)33.227.634.640.834.7
Imports (USD billion)20.713.014.515.814.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.9-16.925.617.8-14.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.6-37.010.99.2-10.6
International Reserves (USD)23.823.717.515.416.3
External Debt (% of GDP)45.360.049.057.477.8

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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