Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

August 24, 2021

Economic conditions likely remained challenging in the second quarter. On one hand, oil prices reached an over two-and-a-half-year high in June, with the easing of restrictions abroad boosting oil demand. On the other hand, oil output tumbled to an over 16-year low in June due to prior OPEC+ production cuts. Moreover, inflation spiraled further in the same month, likely eating into consumers’ pockets, while lingering lockdown measures amid the country’s low vaccination rate and elevated Covid-19 cases will have further dented activity. Turning to Q3, authorities extended the nationwide state of emergency until at least 6 September. However, certain measures were eased, which could provide the economy with some much-needed respite. Furthermore, oil prices rose higher in July, which should support public finances despite a further drop in output in the same month.

Angola Economic Growth

The economy is forecast to return to growth this year, following years of recession. Activity should receive a boost from the gradual lifting of lockdown measures at home and abroad. That said, a low base effect will flatter growth, while social unrest, high inflation and a sizable public debt burden cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 0.9% in 2021, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 2.9%.

Angola Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)26.727.528.429.330.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,3543,6554,3043,6522,809
GDP (USD bn)11610112210784.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.9-2.6-0.1-2.0-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.9-19.53.0-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-4.5-6.32.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.175.769.389.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.814.44.120.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)14.341.926.318.217.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.332.431.720.317.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0016.0018.0016.5015.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)135.2165.8165.8307.7479.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)120.1163.5165.8252.9363.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-3.1-0.56.96.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.3-3.1-0.67.45.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.514.520.225.020.6
Exports (USD billion)33.227.634.640.834.7
Imports (USD billion)20.713.014.515.814.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.9-16.925.617.8-14.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.6-37.010.99.2-10.6
International Reserves (USD)23.823.717.515.416.3
External Debt (% of GDP)45.360.049.057.477.8

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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