Angola Economic Forecast

Angola Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

Economic conditions should have improved in Q1. Inflation eased amid a strengthening currency, which, coupled with the rollback of some Covid-19 restrictions, bodes well for household spending. Rising oil prices and production throughout Q1 likely supported government finances. A similar narrative is expected to be unfolding in Q2. Domestic and international anti-pandemic measures were further eased in early April. Additionally, price pressures continued to trend downwards through May, reaching an 18-month low in the month and supporting private consumption. Government finances are likely continuing to improve as well: The war in Ukraine has kept oil prices elevated through May, while production picked up pace. Meanwhile, the first-ever initial public offering occurred with the country’s largest private bank, which may encourage increased privatization.

Angola Economic Growth

The economy is expected to gain momentum this year amid the rollback of Covid-19 restrictions, which should support domestic demand. Further, the oil sector should reap the benefits of high commodities prices and Western countries’ supply diversification away from Russia. However, uncertainty leading up to the August elections poses a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.2% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2023, the economy is seen growing 3.1%.

Angola Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)26.727.528.429.330.1
GDP per capita (USD)4,3543,6554,3043,6522,809
GDP (USD bn)11610112210784.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.9-2.6-0.1-2.0-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.9-19.53.0-6.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.9-4.5-6.32.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.175.769.389.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.814.44.120.430.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)14.341.926.318.217.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.332.431.720.317.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)11.0016.0018.0016.5015.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)135.2165.8165.8307.7479.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)120.1163.5165.8252.9363.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.8-3.1-0.56.96.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.3-3.1-0.67.45.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.514.520.225.020.6
Exports (USD billion)33.227.634.640.834.7
Imports (USD billion)20.713.014.515.814.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-43.9-16.925.617.8-14.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-27.6-37.010.99.2-10.6
International Reserves (USD)23.823.717.515.416.3
External Debt (% of GDP)45.360.049.057.477.8

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Angola Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate479.00.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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