Latin America Economic Outlook
Despite a strong first half, 2025’s GDP expansion is projected to be the joint-weakest since the pandemic downturn of 2020. Headwinds include U.S. trade restrictions, sluggish demand from key partner China and sociopolitical instability. Countering these headwinds to an extent will be strong harvests in Brazil and Uruguay, along with Argentina’s economic rebound.
Latin America Inflation
Regional inflation has declined steadily so far this year, largely thanks to disinflation in Argentina plus subdued global oil prices. In 2025 as a whole, inflation should average around a third of 2024’s rate on the back of lower price pressures in Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. In contrast, average inflation will soar in Bolivia and Venezuela.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2025 to 2022.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 7,208 | 8,294 | 9,359 | 10,456 | 10,628 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 5.84 | 9.53 | 18.93 | 20.18 | 12.11 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 103 | 49 | -11 | 43 | 64 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 68.9 | 62.8 | 61.0 | 67.8 | 63.1 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -7.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 2.7 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,012 | 1,273 | 1,474 | 1,453 | 1,504 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 876 | 913 | 854 | 888 | 902 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -6.6 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -6.7 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.4 | -5.3 | -5.3 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 908 | 1,224 | 1,484 | 1,411 | 1,440 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 10.3 | 9.5 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 6.4 | 10.2 | 15.6 | 18.4 | 24.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 48.1 | 42.7 | 37.8 | 34.9 | 34.3 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -11.5 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.5 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -0.1 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -1.2 |