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East Asia Economic Forecast

East Asia Economic Outlook

Regional growth will slow this year from last as the post-pandemic boost to activity in China and Hong Kong disappears. However, Korea and Taiwan will grow faster on rebounds in exports and industrial production. Mongolia will stay by far East Asia’s top performer thanks to strong mining investment, higher wages and social spending, and a burgeoning tourism industry.

East Asia Inflation

Consumer prices in East Asia fell 0.4% year on year in January (December: +0.1% yoy). Faster deflation in China and lower inflation in Korea and Taiwan drove the downturn in regional prices. In 2024, price pressures are projected to be muted across the region with the exception of Mongolia, which will see elevated inflation on the back of expansionary fiscal policy.

This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2022.

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GDP per capita (USD) 11,306 11,592 13,875 13,826 -
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 5.3 1.8 8.0 2.8 4.7
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 5.7 -2.9 10.9 0.7 -
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) 4.4 2.8 5.2 4.5 -
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 4.9 2.8 9.7 3.2 -
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.2 -
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -5.8 -3.3 -4.4 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 57.6 66.6 68.4 73.3 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.6 2.2 1.1 2.3 0.6
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) 3.74 3.36 3.40 3.57 3.45
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) 122 112 113 112 117
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 1.5 2.6 2.9 2.7 -
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 3,888 3,962 5,095 5,297 4,993
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 3,437 3,376 4,374 4,504 4,155
International Reserves (USD bn) 4,556 4,826 4,940 4,712 4,871
External Debt (% of GDP) 16.7 18.6 17.7 16.5 -

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