East Asia Economic Outlook
Panelists have upgraded their forecasts for 2025 GDP growth over the last month thanks to AI demand spurring the region’s tech exports as well as an extension of the U.S.-China trade truce through November. However, East Asia’s economy should still slow in the second half of this year as export frontloading loses steam and domestic headwinds gather in China’s economy.
East Asia Inflation
Inflation remains subdued across much of East Asia—particularly in China, where prices have posted year-on-year declines for several months in 2025—reflecting the region’s vast manufacturing capacity and high savings rates. East Asia is set to register the world’s lowest average inflation this year, with Mongolia an exception thanks to robust household spending.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,632 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 63.6 | 65.1 | 70.1 | 75.7 | 81.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.6 |