East Asia Economic Outlook
Panelists expect East Asia’s economy to slow this year vs 2024. Following a robust H1, the regional economy is projected to ebb notably in H2 as export frontloading loses steam and domestic headwinds gather in China’s economy. However, tourism, fiscal stimulus measures and strong global AI demand spurring electronics sales will remain tailwinds.
East Asia Inflation
Price pressures are low across most of East Asia—especially in China, where prices have fallen year on year for several months of 2025—due to the region’s huge manufacturing base and elevated savings rates. This year, East Asia should record the lowest average inflation of any world region, though Mongolia will buck the trend due to buoyant household consumption.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,632 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -3.0 | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.2 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 63.6 | 65.1 | 70.1 | 75.7 | 81.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.6 |