East Asia Economic Outlook
East Asian GDP growth will accelerate this year. China and Hong Kong will benefit from the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions; this will also boost Mongolia’s China-dependent economy. However, Korea and Taiwan will see slower growth, on tighter monetary policy and softer goods demand from developed markets. China-Taiwan tensions and the speed of China’s recovery are risks.
East Asia Inflation
Regional inflation rose to 2.4% in January from 2.1% in December on higher price pressures in China, Korea and Taiwan. Regional inflation should rise further this year on rebounding Chinese demand, but will still be low compared to other world regions thanks to huge domestic manufacturing capacity and relatively muted energy prices.
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.6 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| Policy Rate (%, eop) | 3.82 | 3.91 | 3.74 | 3.36 | 3.40 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 6.1 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 9.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.8 | -3.2 | -4.2 | -5.8 | -3.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 6.3 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 7.6 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 8.4 | 7.5 | 5.7 | -2.9 | 11.8 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 7.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 5.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 49.7 | 51.6 | 54.8 | 64.8 | - |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.7 |