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East Asia Economic Forecast

East Asia Economic Outlook

Panelists expect East Asia’s economy to record slower growth in 2025 vs 2024. Following a robust H1, the regional economy is projected to slow notably in H2 as export front-loading runs its course, though tourism, stimulus measures and strong global AI demand will remain tailwinds. Potential U.S. “reciprocal” tariffs from July are a key downside risk.

East Asia Inflation

Price pressures are low in most of East Asia—especially in China, where prices fell year on year for the fourth straight month in May—due to huge manufacturing capacity and elevated savings rates. In 2025, the region is set to record the lowest average inflation of any region, though Mongolia will buck the trend with elevated inflation driven by robust consumer demand.

This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
GDP per Capita (USD) 11,867 14,215 14,203 14,229 14,632
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) 1.8 8.0 2.8 4.7 4.7
Private Consumption (annual variation in %) -2.9 10.9 1.2 - -
Investment (annual variation in %) 2.7 5.3 4.6 2.5 3.0
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) 2.7 9.7 3.2 3.4 5.8
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 5.0 4.9 5.2 4.8 4.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -5.7 -3.3 -4.3 -4.1 -
Public Debt (% of GDP) 63.6 65.1 70.1 75.7 -
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 2.2 1.1 2.3 0.7 0.5
Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) 3.35 3.39 3.57 3.44 3.08
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.0 3.1
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) 3,962 5,095 5,297 4,992 5,333
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) 3,376 4,374 4,504 4,154 4,254
International Reserves (USD bn) 4,826 4,940 4,712 4,871 4,875
External Debt (% of GDP) 18.2 17.3 16.1 16.1 -

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