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Economic Growth in Vietnam
The Vietnamese economy recorded average real GDP growth of 6.1% in the decade to 2022, above the 4.4% average for the Asia-Pacific region. In 2022, Vietnam's real GDP growth was 8.0%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Vietnam GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Vietnam from 2014 to 2023.
Source: General Statistics Office of Vietnam.
Vietnam GDP Data
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 7.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 8.0 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 304 | 332 | 346 | 370 | 406 |
| GDP (VND tn) | 7,009 | 7,707 | 8,044 | 8,480 | 9,513 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 12.2 |
GDP growth records best reading since Q3 2022 in the fourth quarter
GDP growth accelerated to 6.7% year on year in the fourth quarter, from 5.5% in the third quarter. Q4's reading marked the strongest expansion since Q3 2022 and beat market expectations. As a result, the economy registered 5.0% GDP growth over 2023 as a whole—above the ASEAN average but notably below the government’s 6.5% target.
Industrial output growth hit an over one-year high of 7.4% in the final quarter, picking up from the third quarter's 5.2%. This was likely linked to improved overseas goods demand, as merchandise exports returned to growth in Q4 for the first time in over a year. The expansion in services improved to 7.3% in Q4 (Q3: +6.4% yoy). Meanwhile, agriculture growth ebbed to 4.1% in Q4, from 4.3% recorded in the prior quarter.
Our Consensus is for economic activity to accelerate in 2024 from 2023, as a result of improved industrial production and exports, with GDP growth likely to be among the fastest in ASEAN.
On their outlook, Goldman Sachs analysts said: “In reflection of the strong Q4 outcome, to be offset partly in Q1 2024 on pullback in health services, we raise our 2024 real GDP forecast to 6.3% from 6.0%.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Vietnamese GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 26 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Vietnamese GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Vietnamese GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Vietnamese GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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