GDP in Uruguay
Uruguay - GDP
Economy contracts for first time in over three years in Q1
The economy shrank 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, contrasting the fourth quarter’s 0.6% expansion and marking the first contraction since the 2015 recession. Meanwhile, in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP remained stagnant in Q1, following Q4’s marginal contraction (Q1: +0.0% quarter-on-quarter; Q4: -0.2% qoq).
On the domestic front, household consumption continued to decline in the first quarter (Q1: -0.4% year-on-year; Q4: -0.5% yoy), amid lower wage growth, rising unemployment and a weaker peso. In a similar fashion, fixed investment contracted again at the outset of 2019 (Q1: -3.2% yoy; Q4: -3.8% yoy), against the backdrop of slumping private investment activity which more than offset a jump in public investment. Lastly, government consumption growth more than halved in Q1 (Q1: +0.7% yoy; Q4: +1.5% yoy) although remained in positive territory as the authorities continue to attempt to stimulate the economy.
Externally, exports of goods and services fell 6.0% yoy in Q1, deteriorating further from Q4’s 4.9% drop and marking the fifth consecutive quarter of contraction. Feeble external demand drove the result, particularly from Brazil and Argentina, the country’s key trading partners. In particular, Uruguay’s all-important tourism sector was hit hard by the ongoing crisis in Argentina. Imports, meanwhile, continued to contract substantially (Q1: -7.9% yoy; Q4: -8.0% yoy), reflecting frail consumer demand.
Looking ahead, strong headwinds to growth will continue to batter the economy this year: A weak external environment amid downturns in Argentina and Brazil will dent the external sector’s performance, while stagnant real wages, a weaker peso and still-high unemployment will curb household spending growth.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast analysts see GDP to expanding 1.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.
Uruguay - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||4.6||3.2||0.4||1.5||2.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Uruguay GDP Chart
Source: Central Bank of Uruguay and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Exchange Rate||35.33||0.24 %||Jun 20|
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June 20, 2019
The economy shrank 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, contrasting the fourth quarter’s 0.6% expansion and marking the first contraction since the 2015 recession.
June 13, 2019
Industrial production rose 0.4% over the same month of the previous year in April, rebounding from a 5.5% year-on-year drop in March which had marked the worst reading so far this year.
June 5, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.4% from a month earlier in May, unchanged from April’s reading.
May 13, 2019
Industrial production fell 5.5% over the same month of the previous year in March, following a milder 2.5% year-on-year drop in February and marking the worst reading so far this year.
May 3, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.4% from a month earlier in April, moderating from the 0.6% month-on-month increase recorded in March.