GDP in Ukraine
Ukraine - GDP
Growth falls to near four-year low in Q4 2019
GDP growth fell to 1.5% year-on-year (yoy) in the fourth quarter of last year (Q3: +4.1% yoy), marking the weakest expansion since Q1 2016, according to a preliminary estimate by Ukraine’s Statistical Institute. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy flatlined in Q4, down from a 0.6% expansion in Q3.
Domestic demand growth was held back by destocking and a steep fall in government spending (Q4: -6.8% yoy; Q3: +2.1% yoy) in the fourth quarter of last year. Nevertheless, private consumption growth accelerated to 11.7% (Q3: +10.2% yoy) on the back of receding inflation, while fixed investment growth jumped to 18.6% (Q3: +13.2% yoy) amid confidence on President Volodymyr Zelensky’s commitment to reform and secure a deal with the IMF.
The external sector weighed on growth in Q4 2019, subtracting 0.2 percentage points from overall growth, contrasting a 1.5 percentage point contribution made in Q3 2019. The downturn reflected a mark slowdown of in export growth (Q4: +3.1% yoy; Q3: +12.7% yoy) against the backdrop of a marked appreciation of the hryvnia and downbeat agricultural and industrial output. Meanwhile, import growth decelerated to 2.4%, from 7.3% in the previous quarter.
The economy is seen sustaining a solid rate of expansion this year. Fixed investment is seen expanding at a solid pace on the back of cheaper financing conditions, while a tightening labor market should shore up household spending. However, backtracking on the reform agenda may put IMF support at risk this year, ahead of hefty debt repayments.
FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 3.2% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2021.
Ukraine - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||-6.6||-9.8||2.4||2.5||3.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Ukraine GDP Chart
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (Ukrstat).
|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||23.70||0.30 %||Jan 01|
Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.
Request a Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
April 3, 2020
After months of foot-dragging, on 30–31 March the government successfully fast-tracked both the banking law and the land reform through Parliament.
April 3, 2020
The Ukrainian hryvnia (UAH) plummeted against the U.S. dollar over the past few weeks, amid fears over the escalation of the Covid-19 health crisis and its impact on activity.
March 23, 2020
Industrial production fell 1.5% over the same month last year in February, after a 5.1% drop in January and marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction in industrial sector output.
March 20, 2020
GDP growth fell to 1.5% year-on-year (yoy) in the fourth quarter of last year (Q3: +4.1% yoy), marking the weakest expansion since Q1 2016, according to a preliminary estimate by Ukraine’s Statistical Institute.
March 12, 2020
At its 10 March, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to cut the key policy rate to 10.00% from 11.00%, marking the sixth consecutive cut.