GDP in Ukraine
Ukraine - GDP
Growth falls to over one-year low in Q1
A second estimate of national accounts data revealed that the first-quarter slowdown was milder than previously estimated, with annual growth revised up to 2.5% from 2.2%. Nevertheless, this was still substantially down from the previous quarter’s 3.5% year-on-year expansion and marked the lowest reading since Q4 2017. In seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms, growth slumped to 0.2% in Q1, from 1.1% in Q4.
The first quarter slowdown was largely driven by tumbling public spending which curbed overall domestic demand growth. Government consumption contracted 8.3% year-on-year in Q1, deteriorating markedly from the previous quarter’s 2.4% dip, as the dire state of public finances and the conditions linked to the IMF program nudged the authorities to go ahead with fiscal consolidation plans. Furthermore, inventories shrank notably in the first quarter, more than offsetting roaring fixed investment growth (Q1: +17.4% year-on-year; Q4: +10.2% yoy) to take a bite out of the overall expansion. On a more positive note, household spending growth picked up from 8.5% in Q4 to 10.7% in Q1 amid lower inflation and improving labor market conditions.
On the external front, metrics improved markedly in the first quarter. Export growth in annual terms soared to 6.8% (Q4: +0.4% yoy), bolstered by a strong increase in merchandise shipments. This signals that the sector remained resilient to rising headwinds amid the ongoing global trade spat and regional geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, import growth also picked up in the first quarter (Q1: +6.5% yoy; Q4: +2.8% yoy), albeit less profoundly than that of exports. As a result, the external sector’s contribution to growth improved from minus 1.4 percentage points in Q4 to minus 1.0 percentage point in Q1, marking the best result since Q2 2016.
Ukraine GDP Forecast
The Central Bank expects growth to ease to 2.5% this year, before picking up to 2.9% in 2020. FocusEconomics panelists, meanwhile, project GDP to expand 2.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.
Ukraine - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||0.0||-6.6||-9.8||2.4||2.5|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Ukraine GDP Chart
Source: State Statistics Committee of Ukraine (Ukrstat).
|Bond Yield||19.00||0.0 %||Jul 27|
|Exchange Rate||26.33||0.30 %||Jun 20|
|Stock Market||553||0.21 %||Jun 19|
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June 20, 2019
A second estimate of national accounts data revealed that the first-quarter slowdown was milder than previously estimated, with annual growth revised up to 2.5% from 2.2%.
June 17, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.7% month-on-month in May, down slightly from a 1.0% increase in April.
May 27, 2019
Industrial production jumped 5.2% year-on-year in April, accelerating from a 2.1% increase in March.
May 15, 2019
Growth decelerated to 2.2% in annual terms in the first quarter of 2019, according to preliminary data released by Ukraine’s Statistical Institute on 15 May.
May 8, 2019
Consumer prices rose 1.0% month-on-month in April, up slightly from a 0.9% increase in March.