GDP in Turkey
Turkey - GDP
Growth slows massively in Q3
According to data released by Turkstat on 10 December, the Turkish economy lost further steam in Q3, amid significant financial market and exchange-rate turbulence, soaring inflation and higher interest rates during the period. Economic growth dimmed to a mere 1.6% in Q3, below market expectations and down from Q2’s revised 5.3% (previously reported: +5.2% year-on-year).
Domestic demand weakened considerably in the third quarter. The expansion in private consumption slowed to 1.1% (Q2: +6.4% yoy), depressed by intensifying price pressures and weaker consumer sentiment. Meanwhile, fixed investment declined sharply (Q3: -3.8% yoy; Q2: +4.2% yoy) on lower investment in construction, and machinery and equipment. In contrast, government spending growth maintained the robust momentum observed in the build-up to the June elections (Q3: +7.5% yoy; Q2: +7.8% yoy).
The external sector strengthened notably in the third quarter, due to the weaker lira and soft domestic demand. Exports of goods and services increased 13.6% (Q2: +4.2% yoy), while imports contracted 16.7% (Q2: +0.2% yoy). As a result, the external sector contributed 6.7 percentage points to growth, up from Q2’s contribution of 0.9 percentage points.
Looking ahead, the economy is likely to contract over the next few quarters, as still-elevated price pressures, tight financial conditions and weak sentiment depress domestic demand. However, the external sector should continue to provide support thanks to increased price competitiveness. The economy should return to growth in the second half of next year as the impact of the currency crisis subsides.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding a mere 0.2% in 2019, with growth set to pick up to 3.3% in 2020.
Turkey - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.5||5.2||6.1||3.2||7.4|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Turkey GDP Chart
Source: Statistical Institute and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||14.56||-0.09 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||5.27||-0.85 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||102,130||1.41 %||Feb 14|
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February 14, 2019
The current account balance recorded a USD 1.4 billion deficit in December, contrasting November’s revised USD 1.1 billion surplus (previously reported: USD 1.0 billion surplus) but down from the USD 7.8 billion deficit recorded in the same month a year prior.
February 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose 1.06% from the previous month in January, contrasting December’s 0.40% decline, according to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (Turkstat).
February 1, 2019
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ICI) and IHS Markit, was stable at 44.2 in January.
January 25, 2019
The Real Sector Confidence Index published by the Central Bank increased from 91.5 in December to 93.0 in January.
January 23, 2019
The consumer confidence index, published by the Statistical Institute in cooperation with the Central Bank, worsened from a revised 58.7 in December (previously reported: 58.2) to 58.2 in January.