GDP in Turkey
Turkey - GDP
Economy grows at softer annual pace in the fourth quarter
GDP expanded 5.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020, softening from the third quarter’s 6.3% rise and coming in under market expectations. The reading was largely driven by slower growth in domestic demand and a persistent drag from the external sector. For the year as a whole, GDP rose 1.8% (2019: +0.9%). The Turkish economy was therefore one of the few in the world to achieve growth in 2020, despite pandemic-induced restrictions.
On the domestic front, household expenditure was the main driver of growth in the fourth quarter, thanks to a robust credit extension fomented by the government. That said, private consumption slowed amid the tightening of Covid-19 restrictions, growing 8.2% year-on-year in Q4 (Q3: +8.5% yoy). Moreover, capital spending growth slowed markedly to 10.3% in the quarter (Q3: +21.9% yoy). Meanwhile, public expenditure rose 6.6% in annual terms in Q4, after increasing 0.8% in Q3.
On the external front, exports of goods and services stagnated after collapsing in the previous quarter (Q4: +0.0% yoy; Q3: -22.1% yoy). Meanwhile, imports rose 2.5% annually in the fourth quarter (Q3: +16.4% yoy).
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed to 1.7% in Q4 from the previous quarter's 15.9%.
Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to firm this year. Domestic and foreign demand are likely to strengthen as the country continues to ease restrictions and the global rollout of vaccines pushes forward, allowing more economies to reopen. Nevertheless, lira weakness and elevated inflation, coupled with uncertainty regarding the trajectory of the pandemic, will keep the outlook clouded.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 3.94.1% in 2021 and 3.94.0% in 2022.
Turkey - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.1||3.2||7.5||2.8||0.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Turkey GDP Chart
Source: Statistical Institute and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||12.00||-0.09 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||5.95||-0.85 %||Jan 01|
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April 6, 2021
Consumer prices increased 1.08% from the previous month in March, picking up from February's 0.91% increase.
April 1, 2021
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry Turkey Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 52.6 in March from 51.7 in February.
March 26, 2021
Business confidence in Turkey rose to a near three-year high 110.8 in March from 109.3 in February.
March 24, 2021
Consumer confidence rose to a multi-year high of 86.7 in March from 84.5 in February; however, the index remained markedly below the neutral 100-threshold that separates pessimism from optimism among consumers. The uptick was driven by a broad-based improvement with views on the current financial situation and the expected financial situation in the year ahead turning less downbeat, while attitudes towards the general economic situation over the next 12 months and likelihood of spending also improved.
March 18, 2021
At its 18 March meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Turkey raised the one-week repo rate by 200 basis points from 17.00% to 19.00%.