Consumer prices fall for the sixth consecutive month in September

Latest reading: Consumer prices declined 0.7% in annual terms in September, following a 0.8% fall in the previous month, marking the sixth consecutive month of deflation. Relative to the prior month's figures, price pressures were higher for transportation and communication in September (-1.9% yoy vs -2.7% in August). In contrast, there were milder price pressures for food and beverages (-0.2% vs -0.1% in August), housing and utilities (-0.4% vs -0.2% in August) and recreation and education (+0.4% vs +0.5% in August). Meanwhile, core consumer prices were up 0.7% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 0.8% rise in the prior month. Finally, consumer prices were unchanged in September in month-on-month terms, following a flat reading in the prior month.

Panelist insight: Commenting on the outlook, Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Sathit Talaengsatya, analysts at United Overseas Bank, stated: “We [revised downward our] forecast for Thailand’s headline CPI […] The downgrade reflects: (i) a weaker-than-expected Sep outturn (headline -0.72% y/y; core +0.65% y/y), (ii) official guidance that inflation will hover near zero into 4Q—helped by lower Dubai crude, the FT [fuel tariff] reduction to 0.1572 baht/unit that pulls the electricity tariff to 3.94 baht/unit, abundant fresh-produce supply, and ongoing retail promotions—and (iii) a subdued growth outlook. These forces, which prolong supply- and policy-driven disinflation, keep underlying pressures contained into early 2026. We then assume a modest positive print in 2027 as energy base effects fade, cost-of-living measures lapse, and core gradually refirms from current low levels.”

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