Inflation in Thailand
Thailand - Inflation (end of period)
Inflation moderates sharply in December
Consumer prices dropped 0.65% over the previous month in December, a sharper drop than November’s 0.22% decrease. The result came on the heels of a significant drop in the price level for food and non-alcoholic beverages; transportation and communication; non-food and beverages; and raw food and energy.
Inflation marked starkly from 0.9% in November to 0.4% in December, far removed from the Bank of Thailand’s 1.0%–4.0% target range. Lastly, core inflation, which excludes raw food and energy, was stable at November’s 0.7% in December.
For 2018 as a whole, inflation averaged 1.1% and came in just above the lower limit of the Bank of Thailand’s target range. Charmon Boonnuch and Euben Paracuelles, Asia economists at Nomura, added that the “sharp drop [in headline inflation] was mainly driven by oil prices, as core CPI inflation remained steady” and the expectations of low oil prices this year following the recent freefall in the price for oil means that downside risks to inflation are increasing. This ultimately makes it harder for the Central Bank to justify a potential rate hike this year.
Thailand Inflation Forecast
The Bank of Thailand sees inflation at 1.0% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 1.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists predict average inflation of 1.6%.
Thailand - Inflation (eop) Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop) | 1.7 | 0.6 | -0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 |
Thailand Inflation (eop) Chart
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economics and FocusEconomics calculations.
Thailand Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.47 | 0.0 % | Jan 22 |
| Exchange Rate | 31.75 | 0.17 % | Jan 22 |
| Stock Market | 1,602 | -1.41 % | Jan 22 |
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Economic News
Thailand: Trade balance swings back into black in December
January 21, 2019
Thailand’s external sector logged a trade surplus of USD 1.1 billion in December, contrasting the USD 1.2 billion shortfall in November and markedly above the USD 220 million deficit of December 2017.
Thailand: Inflation moderates sharply in December
January 7, 2019
Consumer prices dropped 0.65% over the previous month in December, a sharper drop than November’s 0.22% decrease.
Thailand: Growth in manufacturing output eases markedly in November
December 28, 2018
Manufacturing production moderated strongly to a 1.0% year-on-year expansion in November from an upwardly revised 5.8% increase in October (previously reported: +4.1% year-on-year) and came in below market expectations.
Thailand: Trade deficit widens in November
December 28, 2018
Thailand recorded a USD 1.2 billion trade deficit in November, a bigger shortfall than October’s USD 280 million deficit.
Thailand: Bank of Thailand raises rates for the first time in seven years in December
December 19, 2018
Following the increasing hawkishness of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand since August, the committee raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75% from 1.50% at its meeting on 19 December.
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