Inflation in Thailand
Thailand - Inflation
Inflation eases in June, raising questions over monetary policy trajectory
Consumer prices decreased 0.09% over the previous month in June, contrasting the 0.56% increase recorded in May. June’s print largely reflected lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages; raw food and energy; and transportation and communication. These groups carry the biggest weight in the consumer price index, and the steepest drop in prices was recorded in the raw food and energy category. Prices for housing and furnishing, the fourth-biggest category, remained virtually unchanged.
Inflation eased from 1.5% in May to 1.4% in June, moving away from the midpoint of the Bank of Thailand’s 1.0%–4.0% target range. However, June marked the third consecutive month in which inflation was within the target range. The result came in below market analysts’ expectations of inflation remaining at 1.5%. A low inflation environment against a backdrop of increasing global trade tensions and monetary policy normalization in the United States and the European Union has left analysts divided over when the Bank of Thailand is likely to hike rates. The clear majority of FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists do not expect a rate hike in the third quarter of this year. However, the panel is nearly split concerning the possibility of an increase to the monetary policy rate towards the end of the year.
Core inflation, which excludes raw food and energy, remained stable at the prior month’s reading of 0.8% in June.
The Bank of Thailand now sees inflation at 1.1% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 1.3% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists predict average inflation of 1.6%.
Thailand - Inflation Data
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.2||1.9||-0.9||0.2||0.7|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Thailand Inflation Chart
Source: Bureau of Trade and Economics and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||2.62||0.0 %||Jul 17|
|Exchange Rate||33.22||0.17 %||Jul 17|
|Stock Market||1,626||-1.41 %||Jul 17|
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
Start Your Free Trial
Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.
June 29, 2018
In annual terms, manufacturing output grew 3.2% in May, up from the prior month’s revised 3.1% year-on-year growth rate (previously reported: +4.0% year-on-year).
June 25, 2018
Thailand’s external sector rebounded from the USD 1.3 billion trade deficit registered in April to a USD 1.2 billion surplus in May, chiefly due to weaker import growth.
June 20, 2018
At its 20 June meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) voted 5 to 1 to maintain the one-day repurchase rate at 1.50%, where it has been for over three years.
June 1, 2018
Consumer prices decreased 0.09% over the previous month in June, contrasting the 0.56% increase recorded in May.
May 31, 2018
Manufacturing growth accelerated from a revised 3.2% year-on-year in March (previously reported: +2.6% year-on-year) to 4.0% yoy in April.